[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271704
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force N to NE winds are
forecast to occur within about 90 nm of the coast of Morocco in
the Meteo-France marine zone Agadir. Gale force winds will
develop by 27/1500 UTC through 28/0000 UTC.  Please read the
latest High SeasForecast issued by Meteo-France at the website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 02N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 01N to 05N between 10W and 30W. A trough extends
along 40W with isolated convection noted near it and the ITCZ
from 01N to 04N between 33W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb low is located south of Louisiana near 28N91W with a
stationary front extending east of the low to the Big Bend of
Florida near 29N83W. A stationary front extends south of the low
to the coast Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W. Showers are noted
across the western Gulf along and west of the front. A trough is
noted in the Bay of Campeche from 25N90W to 19N92W.  Fresh to
strong N to NE winds are noted behind the front in the NW Gulf
with seas 5-7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are noted in
the central and eastern Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in the central
Gulf and 1-2 ft in the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a reinforcing high pressure will push the
front eastward across the Gulf waters, reaching from the Florida
Big Bend to the western Bay of Campeche this evening, and from
South Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. The
front is forecast to reach the Straits of Florida on Tue evening.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in
the wake of the front across the west-central waters near the
Tampico area today. These winds will spread across the SW Gulf
this afternoon and tonight, persisting into Monday morning. High
pressure will settle across the basin by mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds in
the south-central Caribbean. Fresh winds also continue south of
Haiti. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds are noted in
the eastern and central Caribbean with light to gentle winds in
the NW Caribbean. Seas are 8-10 ft north of Colombia, 4-6 ft in
the NW Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the eastern basin. No significant
convection is noted in the Caribbean at this time.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern
Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds near the coast
of Colombia today and tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh
winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate
to fresh trades are also expected across the waters E of the
Lesser Antilles, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds are forecast elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Feature section for more information on the
Meteo-France Gale Warning near Agadir.

A weak stationary front is draped off the northeast Florida
coast from 31N78W to north of Melbourne, FL near 29N81W. Light
winds prevail across the area with seas 4-6 ft.

A trough extends north of Puerto Rico in the central Atlantic
from 28N61W to 21N66W with no significant convection associated
with it. High pressure extends across the rest of the Atlantic.
Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail N of 24N with seas
5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 24N across the
central and most of the eastern Atlantic with seas 8-10 ft in NE
swell. Fresh northerly winds prevail off the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, a reinforcing high pressure will
allow a cold front to move across the northern forecast waters
on Mon, with a low pressure possibly developing along the front
E of Florida by Mon evening. The low is forecast to move NE with
the front reaching the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by
Tue evening. Then, the front is forecast to move across the SE
waters on Wed. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are
expected across the N waters behind the front late Mon and Mon
night.

For the forecast east of 65W, high pressure will remain in
control of the weather pattern across region over the next two or
three days. The pressure gradient between this system and lower
pressure over W Africa, and also in the vicinity of the ITCZ will
maintain a belt of fresh to locally strong trade winds across the
tropical Atlantic.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net