[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 02N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
can be found from 01N to 04N between 10W and 27W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from the equator to 03N between 34W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the western Gulf from a weak
1022 mb low pressure located near 28N93W to near the Veracruz
area. Low level clouds with areas of light rain are associated
with the front. Areas of dense fog prevail within about 60 to 90
nm of the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana. Moderate to fresh
N winds are west of the front based on recent satellite derived
wind data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of
the Gulf, except locally fresh through the Straits of Florida, and
offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
west of the front and 3-5 ft elsewhere across the basin, except
for 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a reinforcing high pressure will push the above
mentioned front eastward across the Gulf waters, reaching from
the Florida Big Bend to the western Bay of Campeche this evening,
and from South Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Mon
evening. The front is forecast to reach the Straits of Florida on
Tue evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are
expected in the wake of the front across the west-central waters
near the Tampico area today. These winds will spread across the SW
Gulf, including the Veracruz region, this afternoon and tonight,
persisting into Monday morning. High pressure will settle across
the basin by mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trades
over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Fresh to strong NE winds are also noted across the Windward passage.
Mainly fresh winds are seen south of Hispaniola to about 15N.
Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, except for 6 to 8 ft off Colombia
and eastern Panama.

Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
observed across the region producing brief showers. Multilayer
clouds, with possible showers, associated with strong upper-level
westerly winds dominate the SE Caribbean, particularly from the
ABC Islands across the Windward Islands into the tropical Atlantic
waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern
Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds near the coast
of Colombia today and tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh winds
will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to
fresh trades are also expected across the waters E of the Lesser
Antilles, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds are forecast elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front is over northern Florida. A dense
fog advisory is in effect across NE Florida and within 60 nm of
the coast N of Daytona Beach trough 9 am EST this morning. Farther
E, a 1024 mb high pressure is located near 30N71W. Light to gentle
winds prevail across the region north of 28N, with 4 to 6 ft seas.
Moderate to locally fresh trades are south of 28N, with the exception
of fresh to strong NE winds near the entrance to the Windward
passage. An ASCAT pass confirmed the presence of the these winds.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft east of the Bahamas based on buoy observations
and altimeter data.

Farther east, a surface trough is analyzed just N of the northern
Leeward Islands, and extends from 26N62W to 18N63W. A few showers
and thunderstorms are seen on the E side of the trough axis,
mainly from 18N to 20.5N between 60W and 63W. The remainder of
the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1027 mb
high pressure located near 32N27W. The pressure gradient between
this system and lower pressures over W Africa supports fresh to
locally strong trade winds between the Cabo Verde Islands and the
Canary/Madeira Islands to the coast of Africa where seas are in
the 8 to 11 ft range. Fresh trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft dominate
the waters from 07N to 20N between 25W and 50W.

For the forecast west of 65W, a reinforcing high pressure will
allow a cold front to move across the northern forecast waters on
Mon, with a low pressure possibly developing along the front E of
Florida by Mon evening. The low is forecast to move NE with the
front reaching the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by Tue
evening. Then, the front is forecast to move across the SE waters
on Wed. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected
across the N waters behind the front late Mon and Mon night.

For the forecast east of 65W, high pressure will remain in control
of the weather pattern across region over the next two or three
days. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressure
over W Africa, and also in the vicinity of the ITCZ will maintain
a belt of fresh to locally strong trade winds across the tropical
Atlantic.

$$
GR
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