[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will support NE trades to minimal gale-force
near the coast of Colombia tonight. Winds will diminish to below
gale force prior to sunrise Sun morning. Seas will range from 8 to
10 ft during the gale event. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 02N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 01N to 03N between 14W and 30W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01S to 01N between 34W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A nearly stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from
north-central Florida near 29.5N83W to weak 1020 mb low pressure
off the coast of Texas near 27.5N95W. The stationary front then
continues south from 27.5N95W to Tuxpan Mexico near 20N96.5W. Low
stratus and areas of dense fog prevail within about 60 to 90 nm
of the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana. Moderate to fresh
N-NE winds are west and north of the front, off the Texas and
Louisiana coasts. Gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail over the
remainder of the Gulf, except locally fresh through the Straits
of Florida, and offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft near the front offshore of Louisiana, Texas and
Mexico. Seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere, except for 1 to 3 ft
in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a reinforcing high pressure will push the front
eastward across the Gulf waters tonight and Sun. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the
front on Sun and Sun night. The front will gradually move
southeast of the basin early next week. High pressure will settle
across the area by mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for details.

Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over much of the
Caribbean, except for fresh to strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean around the Gale Warning area, with fresh to strong NE
winds across the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas are 4-6
ft across the basin, except for 6 to 8 ft off Colombia and
eastern Panama. Mid to upper-level ridging dominates the western
Caribbean. However, patches of trade wind cumulus with possible
isolated showers are noted near Jamaica and also across and
offshore of Honduras and Nicaragua. Over the eastern Caribbean, a
surface trough extends from the Anegada Passage northeast into the
Atlantic. Cloudiness with a few showers prevails over the
southeastern Caribbean Sea, as well as across western Puerto Rica
and the Mona Passage. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows a
plume of enhanced atmospheric moisture that has moved into the SE
Caribbean over the last day or two.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to minimal gale-force offshore
of Colombia tonight into early Sun morning. Fresh to locally
strong NE winds will pulse through the Windward Passage and south
of Hispaniola through early Sun. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean. A weak cold front will
approach the NW Caribbean early next week. Moderate to fresh
trades east of the Lesser Antilles will prevail through the
remainder of the weekend, helping to build seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N78W
to Titusville Florida near 29N81W. High pressure of 1025 mb is
noted east of the front near 30N70.5W. Light to gentle winds
prevail across the region north of 28N with 4 to 6 ft seas.
Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail farther south, including
from the Bahamas to Cuba and Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft east
of the Bahamas.

Farther east, a 1029 mb high pressure is analyzed near 31N29W. A
surface ridge with light to gentle winds extends westward from the
high to 30N60W, as well as northeast of the high to the coast of
Portugal. Seas are 5 to 6 ft near the ridge axis. Fresh to strong
trade winds prevail from 07N to 23N between 35W and 55W, where
seas are 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over much
of the eastern Atlantic, east of 35W, where seas are 7 to 11 ft.
A couple of surface troughs are southwest of the ridging, one from
27N59W to near the Anegada Passage, and another from 27N48W to
25N55W. Isolated showers are possible near both troughs.

For the forecast west of 65W, a reinforcing high pressure will
allow the front to move across the northern forecast waters on Mon
with a low pressure possibly developing along the front east of
NE Florida by late Sun into Sun night. The low is forecast to move
northeast dragging the front across the forecast region through
mid- week.

For the forecast east of 65W, moderate to fresh trades, locally
strong, east of the Lesser Antilles will prevail through the
remainder of the weekend, maintaining seas of 7 to 9 ft west of
55W, and 7 to 10 ft east of 55W. Strong to locally near gale
force NE winds will develop tonight between the Canary Islands and
the coast of Morocco, generating seas of 10 to 12 ft. These
conditions will persist into Tue.

$$
Lewitsky
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