[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260907
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will support pulsing NE trades to minimal gale-
force near the coast of Colombia through early Sunday. Seas will
range from 8 to 11 ft during the gale event. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W and continues to 03N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 03N18W
to 01N29W where it fragments due to an embedded trough from
06N29W to 01S33W, then resumes west of the trough from 01N35W to
the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed on satellite imagery from 02S to 05N
between 27W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from northern Floridan near 30N83W to 27N90W
where it stalls to south of Tampico, Mexico near 21N97W. Low
stratus clouds, with bases around 1,000 ft prevail west of the
front, extending off the Louisiana and Texas coasts. Earlier
scatterometer wind data indicated fresh to strong winds offshore
of Veracruz Mexico with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere west of
the front. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are prevalent behind the frontal
boundary, while 2 to 4 ft are noted elsewhere. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds prevail elsewhere in the basin, except locally
moderate to fresh in the SE Gulf including through the Straits of
Florida, and offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the front will slowly move east and extend from
the big bend of Florida to to the SW Gulf by later this morning
before retrograding toward the Gulf coast later today into
tonight. A reinforcing push will move the front eastward again by
Sun, with the front gradually moving southeast of the basin early
next week. High pressure will settle across the basin by mid-
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for details.

A surface trough stretches across the Windward Islands and into
the SE Caribbean Sea, resulting in a large area of cloudiness and
isolated showers. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Earlier scatterometer satellite data depicted
fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and in the south-
central Caribbean, outside the Gale Warning area. Fresh to strong
trades are also occurring in the Windward Passage and in the
offshore waters of southern Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh
trades are present elsewhere in the basin. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are
present in the central, SW and W Caribbean Sea, while seas of 2 to
4 ft prevail in the E Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of
Colombia through early today, and again tonight into early Sun.
Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the lee of Cuba through
early today. Similar winds will pulse through the approach to the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through early Sun. Mainly
moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
through Sun morning. A weak cold front will approach the NW
Caribbean early next week. Fresh to strong trades east of the
Lesser Antilles will prevail through this morning, then moderate
to fresh through the remainder of the weekend, helping to build
seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1024 mb is located northeast of the Bahamas near
29N83W. A pair of surface troughs are relatively nearby, one south
of the high from 25N72W to near the Windward Passage including
across the Turks and Caicos Islands, and another to the southeast
of the high from 27N61W to 21N64W. A few showers are seen in the
vicinity of the troughs. The pressure gradient west of the trough
near the Turks and Caicos Islands is supporting moderate to fresh
NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6
ft are north of 27N and west of 60W under a ridge axis extending
from the high.

To the east, a strong 1028 mb high pressure is centered just north
of the area near 32N38W in the central Atlantic dominating the
central and eastern Atlantic. The tight pressure gradient as the
result the strong high pressure and lower pressures in the deep
tropics allow for fresh to strong anticyclonic winds S of 27N and
between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas greater than 8 ft
prevail south of 27N and east of 60W. Northerly swell is causing
seas greater than 12 ft over the NE Atlantic, north of 26N and
east of 23W. The rest of the basin enjoys moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 4 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging off the
Florida coast and troughing south of 27N will support moderate to
fresh winds south of 26N through early morning. The pressure
gradient will relax later today allowing for improving marine
conditions. A weak cold front may move into the NE Florida waters
today where it will stall. A reinforcing push will move the front
southeast into early next week, with low pressure possibly
developing along it east of northern Florida. The low would then
drag the front southeast through mid-week.

For the forecast east of 65W, strong to locally near gale force
NE winds will develop over the weekend between the Canary Islands
and the coast of Morocco, generating seas of 10 to 13 ft. These
conditions will persist into Mon.

$$
Lewitsky
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