[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Feb 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will support pulsing NE trades to minimal gale-
force near the coast of Colombia tonight through early Sunday.
Seas will range from 8 to 10 ft during the gale event. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 01N31W where it
fragments due to an embedded trough from 06N33W to 01S33W, then
resumes west of the trough from 01N34W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the
monsoon trough from 02N to 06N and E of 12W  and along the ITCZ
from 03N to 05N between 15W and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb low is located near 26N96W with a quasi-stationary
front extending east of the low to 27N86W where the front
becomes cold from that point to the coast of Florida near
29N83W. A stationary front extends south of the low to the coast
of Mexico near 20N96W. Showers are noted near the low along the
Texas coast.  Scatterometer winds show moderate to fresh winds
north and west of the fronts with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas range 6-8 ft in the NW Gulf with 3-5 ft across
the eastern and southern Gulf. Patchy fog continues near the
front in the northern Gulf with limited visibility at times.

For the forecast, the front will slowly move east and extend
from the big bend of Florida to the SW Gulf by later this
morning, before retrograding toward the Gulf coast into tonight.
A reinforcing push will move the front eastward again by Sun,
with the front gradually moving southeast of the basin early
next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are possible in the
western Gulf behind the front early Sun into Mon. High pressure
will settle across the basin by mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for details.

Scatterometer this morning shows fresh winds in the Lee of Cuba.
Strong winds continue near the Colombia coast and gentle to
moderate trades prevail across the rest of the basin. No
significant convection is noted at this time. Seas range near 8
ft north of Colombia with 3 to 6 ft elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of
Colombia tonight into early Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds will
pulse through the approach to the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola through early Sun. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean through Sun morning. A weak
cold front will approach the NW Caribbean early next week. Fresh
trades east of the Lesser Antilles will prevail through late this
morning, then moderate to fresh through the remainder of the
weekend, helping to build seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front is beginning to move off
the northeast coast of Florida. High pressure is noted northeast
of the Bahamas with a 1025 mb high located near 29N76W. Light to
gentle winds prevail across the region with 4 to 7 ft seas.  A
trough extends north of the Mona Passage from 29N64W to 21N67W
with no significant convection associated with it. Another
trough extends off the Leeward Islands from 22N59W to 16N61W.
Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm of the trough and
moderate to fresh winds along it. Seas up to 8 ft seas
approaching the Lesser Antilles. High pressure dominates the
central Atlantic with fresh to strong easterly winds prevailing
S of 24N and E of 48W. Seas range 8-10 ft across this area. N of
24N, winds are light to gentle with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the pressure gradient will relax
today across the region allowing for improving marine
conditions. A weak cold front may move into the NE Florida
waters today where it will
stall. A reinforcing push will move the front southeast into
early next week, with low pressure possibly developing along it
east of northern Florida. The low would then drag the front
southeast through mid-week.

For the forecast east of 65W, strong to locally near gale force
NE winds will develop over the weekend between the Canary
Islands and the coast of Morocco, generating seas of 10 to 13
ft. These conditions will persist into Mon.

$$
AReinhart
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