[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260442
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0435 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will support pulsing NE trades to minimal gale-
force near the coast of Colombia through early Sunday. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass show strong to gale-force trades
affecting the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds
occurring offshore NW Colombia. Seas will range from 9 to 11 ft
during the gale event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
and continues to 04N15W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N15W to
03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is observed on satellite imagery
from 02S to 05N and between 23W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 26/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near Apalachicola,
Florida to a little more than a hundred miles south of SE
Louisiana. The cold front then transitions into a stationary
front that continues through the western Gulf before spreading
southward toward the state of Veracruz, Mexico. Low stratus
clouds, with bases around 1,000 ft prevail west of the front,
extending off the Louisiana and Texas coasts.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh to strong
N-NE winds prevail west of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds are
also occurring in the offshore waters of Veracruz. Seas of 4-7 ft
are prevalent behind the frontal boundary, while 2-4 ft are noted
elsewhere. An altimeter satellite pass captured seas up to 8 ft in
the SW Gulf a few hours ago. Fairly tranquil weather conditions
and moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds prevail elsewhere
else in the basin.

For the forecast, patchy fog is noted ahead of the front in the
NE Gulf of Mexico as well as behind the front, along with fresh to
strong winds south of 26N and west of the front. The front will
slowly move east and extend from the big bend of Florida to to the
SW Gulf by Sat morning before retrograding toward the Gulf coast
later on Sat. A reinforcing push will move the front eastward
again by Sun, with the front gradually moving southeast of the
basin early next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
possible in the western Gulf behind the front early Sun into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for details.

A surface trough stretches across the Windward Islands and into
the SE Caribbean Sea, resulting in a large area of cloudiness and
isolated showers. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Recent scatterometer satellite data depict
fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and in the south-
central Caribbean, outside the Gale Warning area. Fresh to strong
trades are also occurring in the Windward Passage and in the
offshore waters of southern Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh
trades are present elsewhere in the basin. Seas of 3-6 ft are
present in the central, SW and W Caribbean Sea, while seas of 1-3
ft prevail in the E Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the lee
of Cuba through early Sat. Similar winds will pulse through the
approach to the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through
early Sun. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere
in the Caribbean through Sun morning. A weak cold front will
approach the NW Caribbean early next week. Fresh to strong trades
will develop east of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then moderate to
fresh through the remainder of the weekend, helping to build
seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is found along 59W from 20N to 26N, a few
hundred miles NE of the Leeward Islands. The trough is the surface
reflection of a large upper level low that has been slowly moving
westward over the last few days. A few showers are seen east of
the surface trough. A strong 1031 mb high pressure is centered
near 33N39W in the central Atlantic dominating the central and
eastern Atlantic. The tight pressure gradient as the result the
strong high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics
allow for fresh to strong anticyclonic winds S of 27N and between
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas greater than 8 ft prevail S
of 28N and E of 60W. Northerly swell is causing seas greater than
12 ft over the NE Atlantic, N of 28N and E of 25W. A recent
altimeter satellite pass show seas up to 15 ft about 175 nm W of
the Canary Islands. The rest of the basin enjoys moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging off the
Florida coast and a trough of low pressure near 60W will support
moderate to fresh winds south of 25N. The pressure gradient will
continue to relax tonight, allowing for improving marine
conditions. A weak cold front may move into the NE Florida waters
Sat where it will stall. A reinforcing push will move the front
southeast into early next week, with low pressure possibly
developing along it east of northern Florida. The low would then
drag the front southeast through mid-week.

For the forecast east of 65W, strong to locally near gale force
NE winds will develop over the weekend between the Canary Islands
and the coast of Morocco, generating seas of 10-13 ft. These
conditions will persist into Mon.

$$
DELGADO
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