[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will support pulsing NE trades to minimal gale-
force near the coast of Colombia tonight and again Sat night. Seas
will range from 9 to 11 ft during the gale event. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W and continues to 04N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N18W
to 02N22W to 03N38W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to
05N between 24W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 25/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from near Panama City,
Florida near 30N86W to 29N87W to 27.5N91W. A stationary front
continues through the western Gulf from 27.5N91W to 25.5N96W to
21N96W to south of Tampico, Mexico, near 21N97W. Low stratus
clouds, with bases around 1,000 ft prevail west of the front,
extending off the Louisiana and Texas coasts. Strong N winds
prevail west of the front off the coast of NE Mexico. Fresh NE
winds are prevalent off the Texas and Louisiana coasts, northwest
of the front. Mainly gentle winds prevail south and east of the
front, except near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the
Florida Straits, where moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail.
Recent altimeter data from 25/1630 UTC show seas of 8-9 ft over
the western Gulf, west of the front, although seas have likely
subsided to 6-7 ft now over the NW Gulf. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail
south and east of the front, except up to 5 ft toward the
approaches to the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the front will slowly move east and extend from
the big bend of Florida to the SW Gulf by Sat morning before
retrograding toward the Gulf coast later on Sat. A reinforcing
push will move the front eastward again by Sun, with the front
gradually moving southeast of the basin early next week. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are expected in the west-central and SW
Gulf behind the front Sun afternoon into early Mon. Some low
overcast ceilings, with cloud bases below 1,000 ft, are likely for
portions of the waters off Texas through Sun morning. The cloud
bases could sink to below 200 ft in some spots, creating patchy
areas of dense fog. Patchy dense marine fog is also possible
tonight through Sat morning offshore the Florida Big Bend area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for details.

Strong trades persist near the coast of Colombia in the south-
central Caribbean, with seas of 8-9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades
prevail over much of the central and western Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are 3-6
ft in the eastern Caribbean, 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean
outside of the area of strong winds, and 4-6 ft in the western
Caribbean. A westward-moving surface trough located just east of
the Lesser Antilles is spreading increased moisture over the
Windward Islands and southeast Caribbean. The blended Total
Precipitable Water product shows the abundant moisture in the
area. A mid to upper-level trough extends from 21N59W SW to the
coast of Venezuela. Cloudiness with possible isolated showers are
occurring south of 15N and east of 66W. Most of the remainder of
the Caribbean is relatively dry, except for some possible isolated
trade wind showers extending southward from Jamaica to 15N.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of
Colombia tonight and Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds will
pulse in the lee of Cuba through early Sat. Similar winds will
pulse through the approach to the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola through early Sun. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean through Sun morning. A weak
cold front will approach the NW Caribbean early next week. Fresh
to strong trades will develop east of the Lesser Antilles tonight,
behind a westward moving surface trough, before diminishing to
moderate to fresh through the remainder of the weekend. Enhanced
moisture should lead to an increase in rainshowers over the
southeast Caribbean this weekend. The enhanced moisture will
migrate to the south-central and southwest Caribbean for the early
part of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three surface troughs are analyzed in the W Atlantic with the
following positions: 30N63W to 22N68W, 23N57W to 20N59W, and
16N58W to 11N61W. Scattered showers are noted from 10N-24N between
41W-60W. The showers are being enhanced by an upper-level low
centered near 21N59W. A 1032 mb high pressure near 32N38W extends
a surface ridge westward to 31N68W, and to the coast of east-
central Florida. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge axis.
Farther south, moderate to fresh NE trades prevail through the
central and SE Bahamas and Windward Passage. Fresh to locally
strong trades prevail over a large area of the tropical Atlantic
from 07N-24N between 25W-56W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft across this
area. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft west of 67W and north of 26N. Seas
are 6-8 ft south and east of that area to 56W. Large seas are
occurring over the NE Atlantic, north of 26N and east of 35W due
to large northerly swell propagating into the area.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging off the
Florida coast and a trough of low pressure near 66W will support
moderate to fresh winds E of 70W. The pressure gradient will
continue to relax tonight, allowing for improving marine
conditions. A weak cold front may move into the NE Florida waters
Sat where it will stall. A reinforcing push will move the front
southeast into early next week, with low pressure possibly
developing along it east of northern Florida. The low would then
drag the front southeast through mid-week.

For the forecast east of 65W, strong to locally near gale force
NE winds will develop over the weekend between the Canary Islands
and the coast of Morocco, generating seas of 10-13 ft. These
conditions will persist into Mon.

$$
Hagen
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