[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251842
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will again support pulsing NE trades to minimal
gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight into early Sat.
Winds will be near gale-force Sat night into early Sun. Seas will
range between 8 to 11 ft during the gale event. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W and continues to 04N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N18W
to 02N21W to 03N39W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from the equator to 04N between 21W
and 32W. This morning's scatterometer pass detected strong to near
gale force winds within this area of convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 25/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida/Alabama
border to 27N93W. A stationary front continues through the western
Gulf from 27N93W to 25N95W to just south of Tampico, Mexico, near
21N97W. Any patchy fog ahead of the front should lift by
late morning local time. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out
near the boundary. Recent surface observations depict fresh to
strong NE winds behind the front, and a satellite altimeter pass
indicates seas of mainly 4-6 ft. However, 6-9 ft seas are analyzed
in the far west- central Gulf within 120 nm of the coast of
Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche, with
no associated convection at this time. The rest of the Gulf of
Mexico is dominated by a ridge of high pressure that extends
across northern Florida. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are
present in the SE Gulf and off NW Yucatan. Seas in these parts of
the Gulf are 3 to 6 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the
Straits of Florida. The rest of the basin experiences moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will slowly move east
and extend from the FL/AL border to the SW Gulf by this evening,
and then may retrograde toward the Gulf coast through the first
part of the weekend. A reinforcing push will move the front
eastward again by Sun, with the front gradually moving southeast
of the basin early next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
possible in the west- central and SW Gulf behind the front Sun
afternoon into early Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for details.

Strong trades persist near the coast of Colombia in the south-
central Caribbean, with seas of 8-10 ft. The latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the Windward Passage and
central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trades in the eastern
and western Caribbean. Seas are 3-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean,
6-8 ft in the central Caribbean outside of the area of strong
winds, and 4-6 ft in the western Caribbean. Isolated showers are
possible in patches of low level moisture embedded within the
trades.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of
Colombia tonight through early Sat and once again on Sat night.
Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the lee of Cuba through
early Sat. Similar winds will pulse through the approach to the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through early Sun. Mainly
moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
through Sun morning. A weak cold front may move into the NW
Caribbean Sun night. Fresh to strong trades will develop east of
the Lesser Antilles tonight, then moderate to fresh through the
remainder of the weekend, helping to build seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three surface troughs are analyzed in the W Atlantic with the
following positions: 30N63W to 21N68W, 23N56W to 19N58W, and
16N56W to 11N61W. No significant convection is noted with any of
the troughs at this time. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds, guided by
high pressure north of the area, prevails over the eastern and
central Atlantic. Winds turn to the SE and diminish to mainly
moderate speeds west of the Bahamas. Seas are 3-6 ft W of 70W,
6-10 ft in areas of NE swell over the south-central and north-
eastern portions of the discussion area, and 6-8 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure near 29N77W and a
trough of low pressure near 66W will support moderate to fresh
winds E of 70W. The pressure gradient will continue to relax later
today and tonight allowing for improving marine conditions. A
weak cold front may move into the NE Florida waters Sat where it
will stall. A reinforcing push will move the front southeast into
early next week, with low pressure possibly developing along it
east of northern Florida. The low would then drag the front
southeast through mid-week

$$
Mahoney
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