[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250912
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE trades to
minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia through early this
morning, and then again tonight into early Sat. Winds will be
near gale-force Sat night into early Sun. Seas will range between
8 to 11 ft during the gale event. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 04N19W. The ITCZ
then extends from 04N19W to 02N33W to the coast of Brazil near
00N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found
within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 19W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Louisiana to 27N95W, where it
transitions into a stationary front that continues to the coast
near Veracruz Mexico. Marine fog and light, isolated showers
continue to affect the waters behind the frontal boundary. Fresh
to strong winds and building seas were recently reported west of
the front in the Texas coastal waters. A couple of surface troughs
are found in the eastern and western Bay of Campeche, but no
significant convection is associated with these features. The
rest of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a ridge of high
pressure which extends across northern Florida. Moderate to fresh
anticyclonic winds are present in the SE Gulf and off NW Yucatan.
Seas in these parts of the Gulf are 3 to 6 ft, with the highest
seas occurring in the Straits of Florida. The rest of the basin
experiences moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will slowly shift east
and extend from the FL/AL border to the SW Gulf by this evening,
then may retrograde through the first part of the weekend. A
reinforcing push will move the front eastward again by Sun, with
the front gradually moving southeast of the basin early next week.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are possible in the west-central
and SW Gulf behind the front Sun afternoon into early Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for details.

Fresh to strong trades are affecting the north-central Caribbean
Sea, Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba. The strongest winds are
found across the offshore waters of Hispaniola. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are noted in the western and eastern
Caribbean. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are present in the north-central, SW
and W Caribbean Sea, while seas of 3 to 6 ft are prevalent in the
E Caribbean. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible
with the trades.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of
Colombia at night through early Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds will
pulse in the lee of Cuba through early Sat. Similar winds will
pulse through the approach to the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola through early Sun. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean through Sat night. A weak cold
front may move into the NW Caribbean Sun night. Fresh to strong
trades will develop east of the Lesser Antilles Fri night, then
moderate to fresh through the remainder of the weekend, helping to
build seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Water vapor satellite imagery depict a large upper level low well
NE of the Leeward Islands moving slowly southwestward. At the
surface, a trio of troughs are identified with a western trough
from 30N61W to 19N61W, another to the southeast from 24N55W to
18N58W, and a third to the south from 16N55W to 10N62W.
Scattered weak showers are found near the surface troughs,
especially from 19N to 58N between 50W and 60W. The pressure
gradient between the surface troughs and a 1030 mb high pressure
system just north of the area near 33N40W results in fresh to
strong NE winds west of the western trough to the Bahamas and from
the western and central Greater Antilles to 27N, including the
approaches of the Windward Passage. Seas of 6 to 10 ft are present
in the region described. The waters offshore of northern Florida
to 72W are experiencing moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to
6 ft.

Recent scatterometer satellite data depict a large region of fresh
to locally strong anticyclonic winds covering most of the central
and eastern Atlantic, especially E of 55W. This is due to the
aforementioned high pressure and lower pressures in the deep
tropics. Seas are 6 to 10 ft in these areas.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure near 31N and a trough
of low pressure just east of 65W will support fresh to strong NE
winds from 22N to 27N and east of 70W through early morning, along
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere south of 27N. The pressure
gradient will relax later today and tonight allowing for
improving marine conditions. A weak cold front may move into the
NE Florida waters Sat where it will stall. A reinforcing push will
move the front southeast into early next week, with low pressure
possibly developing along it east of northern Florida. The low
would then drag the front southeast through mid-week.

$$
Lewitsky
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