[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240509
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE trades to
minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through
Fri night. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show strong to
near gale-force winds occurring offshore Colombia. Seas are
forecast to build up to 11 ft with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N20W. The ITCZ then continues from
03N20W to 01N32W to 02S44W. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is observed on satellite imagery from the equator to
06N and between 12W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is found in the NW Gulf of Mexico, extending from SW
Louisiana to the Texas-Tamaulipas border. Radar and satellite
imagery depict weak showers associated with this feature. Surface
observations and satellite-derive wind data show fresh to locally
strong NE winds behind the front. A surface trough is located
along 91W in the eastern Bay of Campeche, extending from 18N to
23N. No significant convection is seen near the trough. The rest
of the Gulf is dominated by a strong high pressure system centered
between the Outer Banks and Bermuda. Latest scatterometer wind
data indicate that fresh to locally strong E winds S of 24N and E
of 93W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Yucatan.
The remainder of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail across the Gulf, except for 1-3
ft in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will become stationary
tonight and weaken through Thu. A stronger cold front is expected
to enter the NW Gulf late Thu night, reach from near Mobile,
Alabama to Brownsville, Texas Fri afternoon, then weaken as it
reaches from near north-central Florida to 27N89W, and stationary
to extreme southern Texas late Fri. Low pressure is expected to
form offshore extreme southern Texas on Sat along the western part
of the front, and shift SSE through Sun as it dissipates. The
cold front will weaken as it continues southward to the SE Gulf by
late Mon. Strong north winds will follow the front over the far
western Gulf on Sun and Sun night. Strong east winds will develop
off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please
read the Special Features section for details.

A dry airmass dominates the Caribbean Sea, only allowing shallow
patches of moisture to ride the trades producing weak, isolated
showers. Recent scatterometer satellite data show strong to near
gale-force trades in the south-central Caribbean and strong NE
winds occurring in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba.
Strong NE trades are also present in the offshore waters of
southern Hispaniola. The rest of the Caribbean experiences
moderate to locally fresh trades. Seas of 7-10 ft are affecting
the south-central Caribbean waters. Seas of 4-7 ft are found in
the rest of the central, SW and W Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas of
2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the northern half of the
Caribbean will continue to support gale force NE winds off the
coast of Colombia and fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of
Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage through
Fri night. Gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia is forecast
again on Sat night. A cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Caribbean Sun night followed by moderate to fresh N to NE
winds. The front will weaken as it reaches from eastern Cuba to
the NE part of Honduras Mon night. Otherwise, moderate trade
winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser
Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri afternoon and continue
through Mon night along with building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by two strong areas of high
pressure. The Bermuda subtropical ridge prevails over the western
Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions W of
60W. A weak surface trough is found just NE of the NW Bahamas, but
this feature is not producing any significant convection. The
Azores subtropical ridge is found just NW of the Azores and it is
the prevalent feature over the central and eastern tropical
Atlantic.

In between these ridges we find a surface trough and low pressure
system near 20N52W. Another trough is present along 57W and
extends from 24N31W. Scattered convection is noted to the east of
these features, especially N of 18N and W of 47W. The pressure
gradient as the result of the robust Azores high and the surface
troughs allow for strong to near gale-force SE winds N of 20N and
between 44W and 57W as confirmed by recent satellite-derived wind
data. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are occurring N of 20N and
between 60W and 69W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are also
found in the central and eastern Bahamas to the coasts of Cuba and
Hispaniola, with the strongest winds affecting the entrance to
the Windward Passage.

Fresh to locally strong anticyclonic winds are prevalent north of
the deep tropics and E of 44W. Seas greater than 8 ft are found N
of 18N and between 17W and 66W. Seas greater than 12 ft are
present from 23N to 28N and between 50W and 55W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 65W, a tightening gradient between high
pressure across the area and a broad trough to the east will
support fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly over the offshore
waters S of 27N through Fri. Afterwards, moderate to fresh
northeast winds will dominate the region through Sat night. The
next cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Sun evening. It
will reach from near 31N68W to 27N20W and to west-central Cuba
early Mon and from near 27N65W to eastern Cuba Mon night.

$$
DELGADO
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