[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE trades to
minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through
Sat night. Seas will range between 8 to 11 ft during the gale
event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ then continues from
03N18W to 01N34W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 0N to 07N between 11W and 24W, and from 0N to
08N W of 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Marsh Island, Louisiana SW to La
Pesca, Mexico. Surface ridging is elsewhere ahead of the front,
which 1023 mb center of high pressure is located over the NE gulf.
The ridge continue to provide moderate to fresh return flow ahead
of the front with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range as indicated by
recent altimeter data.

For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken today. A
stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late tonight,
reach from near Mobile, Alabama to Brownsville, Texas Fri
afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from north-central Florida to
27N89W, and stationary to extreme southern Texas late Fri. Low
pressure is expected to form offshore extreme southern Texas on
Sat along the western part of the front, and shift SSE through Sun
as it dissipates. The cold front will weaken as it continues to
the SE Gulf by late Mon. Strong north winds will follow the front
over the far western Gulf on Sun and Sun night. Otherwise, strong
east winds will develop off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at
night through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please
read the Special Features section for details.

A dry airmass dominates the Caribbean Sea, only allowing shallow
patches of moisture to ride the trades producing weak, isolated
showers. Surface ridging extending S into the western Caribbean
continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward
passage and the lee side of Cuba with seas in the 7-8 ft range.
Gale force winds are within 90 nm off the coast of Coloombia with
seas in the 8 to 11 ft range.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the northern half of
the Caribbean will continue to support gale force NE winds off the
coast of Colombia and fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of
Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage through
Fri night. Gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia is forecast
again on Sat night. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW
Caribbean Sun night followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds.
The front will weaken as it reaches from eastern Cuba to the NE
part of Honduras Mon night. Otherwise, moderate trade winds over
the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles
will increase to fresh speeds Fri afternoon and continue through
Sun along with building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by two strong areas of high
pressure. The Bermuda subtropical ridge prevails over the western
Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions W of
60W. A weak surface trough is found just NE of the NW Bahamas, but
this feature is not producing any significant convection. The
Azores subtropical ridge is found just NW of the Azores and it is
the prevalent feature over the central and eastern tropical
Atlantic.

In between these ridges we find a surface trough and low pressure
system near 20N52W. Another trough is present along 57W and
extends from 24N31W. Scattered convection is noted to the east of
these features, especially N of 18N and W of 47W. The pressure
gradient as the result of the robust Azores high and the surface
troughs allow for strong to near gale-force SE winds N of 20N and
between 44W and 57W as confirmed by recent satellite-derived wind
data. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are occurring N of 20N and
between 60W and 69W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are also
found in the central and eastern Bahamas to the coasts of Cuba and
Hispaniola, with the strongest winds affecting the entrance to
the Windward Passage.

Fresh to locally strong anticyclonic winds are prevalent north of
the deep tropics and E of 44W. Seas greater than 8 ft are found N
of 18N and between 17W and 66W. Seas greater than 12 ft are
present from 23N to 28N and between 50W and 55W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 65W, a tightening gradient between high
pressure across the area and a broad trough to the east will
support fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly over the offshore
waters S of 27N through Fri. Afterwards, moderate to fresh
northeast winds will dominate the region through Sat night. The
next cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Sun evening. It
will reach from near 31N68W to 27N20W and to west-central Cuba
early Mon and from near 27N65W to eastern Cuba Mon night.

$$
Ramos
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