[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE winds to
minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through
Fri night. Seas are forecast to build to 10 or 11 ft with the
strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean from the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from
04N20W to 02N30W to the equator at 40W. Small clusters of
moderate convection are noted from 02N to 05.5N between 12W and
15W, and from 01N to 03N between 15N and 21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico and extends from
Lake Charles, Louisiana to inland southern Texas. Fresh to locally
strong northerly winds are noted per scatterometer data in the
wake of the front. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are ahead of
the front over the remainder of the Gulf waters. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds are observed over the Straits of Florida.
Strong high pressure of 1045 mb over the United States follows
the front. Seas are generally 3-5 ft across the basin with the
exception of 5-6 ft behind the front, and 1-3 ft over the NE
Gulf where a 1025 mb high pressure center is located.

For the forecast, the above mentioned front will become stationary
by this evening and weaken through Thu. A stronger cold front is
is expected to enter the far NW Gulf late Thu night, reach from
near Mobile, Alabama to Brownsville, Texas Fri afternoon, then
weaken as it reaches from near north-central Florida to 27N89W,
while the western part of the front remains stationary to extreme
southern Texas late Fri. A low pressure is expected to form
offshore extreme southern Texas on Sat along the western part of
the front, and shift south-southeastward through Sun as it dissipates.
The cold front will weaken as it continues southward to SE of the
Gulf by late Mon. Strong north winds will follow in behind the
front over the far western Gulf on Sun and Sun night. Strong east
winds will develop off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night
through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please
read the Special Features section for details.

The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations
of fresh to strong NE winds over the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia, and south of Hispaniola to about
15N-16N, with fresh NE-E winds in the lee of central Cuba. Fresh
to strong NE winds are also funneling through the Windward Passage,
where seas are 8 ft based on an altimeter pass. As it is usual,
patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
noted across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. One of this patch of moisture is moving just S of Jamaica.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area combined
with the Colombian low will continue to support minimal gale force
NE winds off the coast of Colombia each night through Sat night,
and fresh to strong northeast winds in the lee side of Cuba,
south of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage through Fri
night. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean
Sun night and weaken as it reaches from eastern Cuba to the
northeast part of Honduras Mon night. The front will be followed
by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. Otherwise,
moderate trade winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters east
of the Lesser Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri
afternoon and continue through Mon night along with building
seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 mb high pressure centered west of Bermuda near 32N71W
dominates the western Atlantic, including also the Bahamas and
the State of Florida. A surface trough, reflection of an upper-
level low is analyzed between 50W and 60W, and extends from
30N60W to 24N55W to 14N55W. This trough will drift eastward
approaching 65W by Fri. An area of multilayer clouds and possible
showers is on the E side of the trough axis covering mainly the
waters from 20N-29N between 46W and 55W. A well defined swirl of
low clouds is seen on visible satellite imagery near the northern
end of the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
area is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1038 mb high
pressure situated NW of the Azores near 44N38W. A weak 1014 mb
low pres is just E of the Madeira Islands with a trough extending
SW to near 28N21W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
and the aforementioned surface trough supports and area of fresh
to locally strong easterly winds roughly N of 15N between 40W
and 55W. Seas are 8-11 ft E of the trough axis.

For the forecast west of 65W, a tightening pressure gradient between
high pressure across the area and a broad trough to the east will
support fresh to locally strong northeast winds mainly over the
offshore waters S of 27N through Fri. Afterwards, moderate to
fresh northeast winds will dominate the region through Sat night.
The next cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Sun evening.
It will reach from near 31N68W to 27N20W and to west-central
Cuba early Mon and from near 27N65W to eastern Cuba Mon night.

$$
GR
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