[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure ridging near Bermuda and lower pressure over Colombia
will continue to support pulsing NE winds to gale-force near the
coast of Colombia nightly through Fri night. The sea heights will
range from 10-11 ft within the strongest winds. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean from the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from
05N20W to 02N30W to 02N38W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 05N between 26W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure west of Bermuda extends a ridge axis SW across the
Gulf. Moderate to fresh return flow is in the western and
southwestern Gulf, west of 86W with seas of 3 to 5 ft. A recent
scatterometer pass notes fresh breezes are within the Florida
Straits. Elsewhere E-SE winds are gentle to moderate with 1 to 3
ft seas. A cold front is approaching the NW Gulf stretching
along the LA/TX coastline but is not causing any significant
weather at this time.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridging over the area will
gradually slide eastward through Thu as the cold front approaches
the NW Gulf. The cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf
Thu night, reach from near Mobile, Alabama to Brownsville, Texas
Fri afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near north-central
Florida to 27N89W, and stationary to extreme southern Texas late
Fri. Low pressure is expected to form offshore extreme southern
Texas on Sat along the western part of the front, and shift to the
central Gulf pushing a cold front into the western Gulf. Strong
north winds will follow in behind the front over the far western
Gulf on Sun and Sun night. Strong east winds will develop off the
northern Yucatan Peninsula at night through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning offshore Colombia.

The gradient between high pressure ridging in the western
Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is producing fresh to
strong E winds over the central and south-central Caribbean.
Scatterometer data depicts strong NE winds also funneling through
the Windward Passage, the lee side of Cuba and southern
Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the area of strong winds and 8
to 11 ft within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. The rest of the
basin is dominated by moderate to fresh easterly trades and
moderate seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
fresh to strong northeast winds in the lee side of Cuba, south
of Hispaniola, and across the Windward Passage through Fri
night. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean
Sun night followed by moderate to fresh north to northeast
winds. Otherwise, moderate trade winds over the tropical north
Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles will increase to
fresh speeds Fri afternoon and continue through Sun night along
with building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 mb high pressure center is west of Bermuda, allowing for
moderate return flow over the northern Bahamas, and contained to
mostly north of 27N and west of 70W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. A
broad surface trough extending from 31N57W to 20N54W tightens
the pressure gradient in the south-central Atlantic waters, thus
supporting fresh to strong NE winds west of the trough axis
between 58W and 70W as well as strong E-SE winds east of the
trough axis to 25W. The strongest SE winds and heavy
precipitation are noted in the upper right quadrant of the
trough, north of 24N. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are over most of the
tropical Atlantic, and are 8 to 11 ft north of 25N and east of
72W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the tightening gradient between
high pressure across
the area and the broad trough to the east will support fresh to
locally strong NE winds mainly over the offshore waters S of 27N
through Fri. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds will dominate
the region through Sat night. The next cold front will move off
the NE Florida coast Sun evening.

$$
Mora
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