[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure ridging near Bermuda and lower pressure over Colombia
will continue to support pulsing NE winds to gale-force near the
coast of Colombia nightly through Fri night. The sea heights will
range from 10-11 ft within the strongest winds. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic from the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from
03N20W to the equator at 40W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 0N to 07N between 08W and 18W, and within 90 nm either
side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure to the west of Bermuda extends a ridge axis
SW across the Gulf and continue to provide moderate to fresh
return flow basin-wide with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Otherwise, dense
fog continue to be reported over the NW gulf with visibility less
than 1 nm.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow is forecast to
continue through early Thu evening with winds pulsing to strong
speeds at night off the northern Yucatan peninsula. A cold front
is expected to enter the far NW Gulf Thu night, bringing strong N
winds to portions of the northern and western Gulf for the end of
the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning offshore Colombia.

The gradient between high pressure ridging in the western Atlantic
and lower pressure over Colombia is producing strong NE winds over
the south-central Caribbean, reaching gale force off the coast of
Colombia. Strong winds are also funneling through the Windward
Passage, the lee side of Cuba and southern Hispaniola. Seas are 5
to 7 ft in the NW and north-central Caribbean and 8 to 11 ft in
the south-central and portions of the SW basin. The rest of the
basin is dominated by moderate to fresh easterly trades and
moderate seas.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SW N Atlantic
waters extending a ridge across the northern half of the Caribbean
will continue to support gale force NE winds off the coast of
Colombia and fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba,
south of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage through late
Fri. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun night
followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Otherwise, moderate
trade winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the
Lesser Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri afternoon and
continue through Sun night along with building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong high pressure to the west of Bermuda extends a ridge axis
SW across the region and into the northern Caribbean. Over the
north-central Atlantic, a broad surface trough continues to
generate heavy showers and scattered tstms in the area N of 20N
between 46W and 58W where recent altimeter data show seas of 8 to
10 ft. The trough also tightens the pressure gradient in the SW N
Atlantic waters, thus supporting the continuation of fresh to
locally strong NE winds mainly across the offshore waters S of
27N. Fresh to strong winds are also in the vicintity of the
trough. The remainder eastern Atlantic waters are under the
influence of a ridge, except for an area of low pressure N of the
Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, a tightening gradient between high
pressure across the area and a broad trough to the east will
support fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly over the offshore
waters S of 27N through Fri. Afterwards, moderate to fresh NE
winds will dominate the region through Sat night. The next cold
front will move off the NE Florida coast Sun evening.

$$
Ramos
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