[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222306
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure ridging near Bermuda and lower pressure over Colombia
will continue to support pulsing NE winds to gale-force near the
coast of Colombia nightly through Fri night. The sea heights will
range from 11-13 ft within the strongest winds. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic from the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from
03N22W to 01N28W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N-05N between 08W-13W, from 00N-04N between 31W-41W and
from 01N-07N between 45W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
Mexico is leading to a gradient, with moderate to fresh SE to S
winds prevailing across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 4-6 ft in the
western two-thirds of the basin, and 2-4 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging and moderate to fresh return
flow prevail across the Gulf. These conditions are forecast to
continue through early Thu evening with winds pulsing to strong
speeds during the evening off the northern Yucatan peninsula.
Patchy areas of dense marine fog are possible along the northern
Gulf shelf waters from Texas to northern Florida tonight through
Thu night. A cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf Thu
night, bringing strong N to NE winds Fri to waters off the coast
of Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

Mid to upper-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the
Caribbean, leading to subsidence and dry air. The GOES-16 mid-
level water vapor channel confirms that the air is quite dry in
the mid-levels across the entire basin. Trade wind cumulus clouds
containing isolated showers are noted near Puerto Rico and over
the water to the south of Jamaica.

The gradient between high pressure near Bermuda and lower
pressure over Colombia is producing strong to near gale NE winds
over the south-central Caribbean, off the coast of Colombia. Fresh
to strong winds are likely occurring in the Windward Passage and
Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh trades cover most of the remainder of the
area west of 66W. Moderate trades prevail east of 66W. A 22/1500
UTC altimeter pass confirmed seas of 8-9 ft from 10N-14N between
78W-79.5W. Seas of 8-9 are likely occurring over the south-central
to SW Caribbean, off Colombia and Panama. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail
over much of the area elsewhere west of 66W, with 4-5 ft seas east
of 66W.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of
Colombia each night through Sat night. Fresh to strong northeast
winds will prevail through Sat in the lee of Cuba, south of
Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad ridging extends across the northern part of the western
Atlantic, leading to mainly moderate easterly trades north of 26N
and west of 72W. Fresh trades are farther south through the
Bahamas to the coasts of Cuba and Hispaniola. A weak surface
trough along 72N from 25N-31W is producing isolated showers near
its axis. Fresh E winds are likely within 180 nm E of the surface
trough. Recent altimeter passes show that seas of 6-8 ft cover
much of the area from 25N-30N between 70W-76W.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 30N55W to 26N56W to
19N55W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted along and
within 420 nm E of the trough. This activity is being enhanced by
upper-level diffluence to the east of an upper-level trough. Fresh
to strong NE winds are occurring north of 27N, west of the surface
trough to 64W, where seas are likely currently 8-11 ft. Meanwhile,
east of the trough, fresh E winds are noted north of 20N and west
of 30W, with seas 8-9 ft across much of the area. A broad 1014 mb
surface low along a surface trough is located SW of the Canary
Islands near 27N21W, allowing for fresh to strong NE winds north
of the islands, as well as from 26N-31N between 22W-28W. Seas of
8-11 ft cover this area. Moderate wind speeds and 6-7 ft seas
prevail from 15N-25N between 50W-65W, with similar conditions over
the far eastern Atlantic, south of 25N and east of 23W.

For the forecast, a tightening gradient between high pressure
building over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the
central Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong NE winds
mainly S of 27N west of 63W through Fri morning. Afterwards,
moderate to fresh NE winds will dominate the region through Sat
night. Meanwhile, surface ridging will continue N of 27N W of 60W,
leading to gentle anticyclonic winds north of 27N through Sat
night. Seas will range from 6-12 ft over the central Atlantic
Ocean during the next couple of days, while 4-8 ft seas will
prevail over the western Atlantic. For the tropical north Atlantic
waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles, moderate trade winds
will increase to fresh speeds Fri night and continue through the
remainder of the weekend along with building seas.

$$
Hagen
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