[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Bermuda High in the western Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
over Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE winds to gale-
force near the coast of Colombia nightly through Fri. The sea
heights will range from 10-12 ft within the strongest winds.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic from the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 06N17W to 02N21W where it
transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 2N30W
to 01N39W. Scattered moderate convection remains well south of
the monsoon trough axis, located within 90 nm of the coasts of
Liberia and Sierra Leone.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the Bermuda high across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, while a surface trough reaches from NE Mexico to the SW
Gulf. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over
Mexico is generating moderate to fresh southeasterly flow across
a majority of the  Gulf with mainly fresh winds in the central
and NW Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern and southern
Gulf, 3 to 5 ft in the central Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft in the NW
Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging and moderate to fresh return
flow prevail across the Gulf, except for fresh to strong winds
over the NW offshore waters. These conditions are forecast to
continue through early Thu evening with winds pulsing to strong
speeds at night off the northern Yucatan peninsula. A cold front
is expected to enter the far NW Gulf Thu night, bringing strong N
winds to portions of the northern and western Gulf for the end of
the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

The gradient between the Bermuda High in the western Atlantic
Ocean and lower pressure over Colombia is producing strong to
gale NE winds over the south-central Caribbean, noted in a
satellite scatterometer pass from 1500 UTC. Fresh NE winds are
also noted in the Windward Passage and are also likely south of
Cuba. Elsewhere the easterly trades are moderate to fresh. Rough
seas to 11 ft are present over the south-central Caribbean while
moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off the
Colombian coast each night through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast
winds in the lee side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola, and across
the Windward Passage will prevail through Sat. Otherwise, moderate
trade winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the
Lesser Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri night and
continue through the remainder weekend along with building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging from the Bermuda high extends across the western
Atlantic to central Florida allowing for dry conditions and
moderate easterly winds west of 65W. A recent altimeter pass and
buoy observations depicted moderate seas in this region.

Farther east, a surface trough stretches from 31N54W to 20N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the
trough, north of 25N. The tightening gradient between high
pressure building over the area and the broad trough supports
fresh to strong NE winds mainly north of 27N and west of the
trough. Meanwhile, east of the trough, moderate to fresh
anticyclonic flow is noted north of 20N and west of 30W. A weak
surface low along a surface trough is located SW of the Canary
Islands, allowing for fresh to strong NW winds north of the
islands and west of 22W. Rough seas cover a majority of the
tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high
pressure building over the area and the broad trough will
continue to support fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly over
the offshore waters S of 27N from today through Fri morning.
Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds will dominate the region
through Sat night.

$$
Mora
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net