[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Bermuda High in the western Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
over Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE winds to gale-
force near the coast of Colombia nightly through Fri. The sea
heights will range from 10-12 ft within the strongest winds.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 05N10W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to
the equator near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 02N to 08N between 11W and 21W, and from
0N to 05N W of 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between ridging from the Bermuda high and lower
pressure over Mexico is generating moderate to fresh southeasterly
flow across the majority of the Gulf with weaker winds in the
northeast portion of the basin. Seas are generally moderate.

For the forecast, surface ridging and moderate to fresh return
flow will prevail across the Gulf through early Thu evening with
winds pulsing to strong speeds at night off the northern Yucatan
peninsula. A cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf Thu
night, bringing strong N winds to portions of the northern and
western Gulf for the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

The gradient between the Bermuda High in the western Atlantic
Ocean and lower pressure over Colombia is producing strong to
gale NE winds over the south-central Caribbean. Strong NE winds
are also observed in the Windward Passage and south of Cuba.
Elsewhere the easterly trades are moderate to fresh. Rough seas
to 10 ft are present over the south-central Caribbean and
moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off the
Colombian coast each night through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast
winds in the lee side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across the
Windward Passage will prevail through Sat. Otherwise, moderate
trade winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the
Lesser Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri night and
continue through the remainder weekend along with building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of surface troughs are between 50W and 60W N of 17N, and
just SW of the Canary Islands. The pressure gradient between the
troughs and surface ridging elsewhere is supporting fresh to
strong NE winds ahead and behind the troughs with seas to 11 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening gradient between high
pressure building over the area and an approaching broad trough
from the east will support fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly
over the offshore waters S of 27N starting this morning and
continuing through Fri morning. Afterwards, moderate to fresh NE
winds will dominate the region through Sat night.

$$
Ramos
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