[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220428
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0420 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Bermuda High in the western Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
over Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE winds to gale-
force near the coast of Colombia nightly through Fri. The sea
heights will range from 10-12 ft within the strongest winds.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic from the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to
the equator near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the monsoon trough with isolated weak
convection along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between ridging from the Bermuda high and lower
pressure over Mexico is generating moderate to fresh southeasterly
flow across the majority of the Gulf with weaker winds in the
northeast portion of the basin. Seas are generally moderate.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow will
continue through Tue night. A cold front is expected to enter the
far NW Gulf Thu night, bringing strong N winds to portions of the
northern and western Gulf for the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

The gradient between the Bermuda High in the western Atlantic
Ocean and lower pressure over Colombia is producing strong to
gale NE winds over the south-central Caribbean. Strong NE winds
are also observed in the Windward Passage and south of Cuba.
Elsewhere the easterly trades are moderate to fresh. Rough seas
to 10 ft are present over the south-central Caribbean and
moderate elsewhere. Scattered showers are occurring near southern
Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti and Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off the
Colombian coast each night through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast
winds in the lee side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across the
Windward Passage will prevail through Sat. Otherwise, moderate
trade winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the
Lesser Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri night and
continue through the remainder weekend along with building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Winds in the western Atlantic are generally moderate to fresh
from the east. West of 70W, seas are moderate. East of 70W and
north of 25N, seas of 8-11 ft are observed on altimeter data. A
surface trough along 55W is causing scattered thunderstorms from
52W-57W between 25N-30N. Farther east, a surface trough near the
Canary Islands is generating scattered thunderstorms with the
gradient producing strong NE winds and very rough seas NW of the
islands. Moderate to fresh easterlies prevail elsewhere in the
central and eastern Atlantic with seas generally ranging from 8-10
ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening gradient between high
pressure building over the area and an approaching broad trough
from the east will support fresh to locally strong NE winds over
the offshore waters S of 27N from late Tue through Fri morning.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are forecast in that region from Fri
afternoon through Sat night.

$$
FLYNN
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