[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Bermuda High in the western Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
over Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE winds to gale-
force near the coast of Colombia from tonight through Sat night.
The sea heights will range from 9-11 ft within the strongest
winds.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to
the Equator along 50W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring
from 03N-05N between 14W-21W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from the equator-08N between 43W-55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends along the N Gulf of Mexico. Moderate and
weaker winds prevail across the basin this afternoon. Seas are 3-
5 ft in the W Gulf and 2-3 ft in the E Gulf. No significant deep
convection is occurring.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow will
develop in the NW Gulf starting tonight and continuing into Tue
night. A cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf Thu
night, bringing strong N winds to portions of the northern and
western Gulf for the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High in the western
Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure over Colombia is producing
strong to near-gale NE winds over the S central Caribbean.
Elsewhere the E trades are moderate to fresh. Seas are 7-9 ft
over the S central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Scattered
showers are occurring south of Jamaica, between Haiti and
Jamaica, and just southwest of Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off the
Colombian coast each night through Fri. Fresh to strong
northeast winds in the lee side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and
across the Windward Passage will prevail through the forecast
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A shear line extends from 30N56W to 26N73W.  A surface trough is
present from 30N50W to 17N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring north of 27N between 46W-57W. North of the shear line
the ENE winds are fresh to strong with seas 8-11 ft. East of the
surface trough, E winds are fresh to strong with seas 8-11 ft.
Farther east, the pressure gradient between the Azores High and
lower pressure over NW Africa is producing strong NE winds north
of 27N and east of 27W. N to NE swell of 8-11 ft covers the
Atlantic east of 35W north of 10N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the shear line is expected to
dissipate by tonight. A tightening gradient between high pressure
building over the area and an approaching broad trough from the
east will lead to northeast to east winds increasing to fresh
speeds over the most of the southern forecast waters from late
Wed through Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds are
expected near and in the Windward Passage. Otherwise, moderate
trade winds will continue over the tropical north Atlantic
waters east of the Lesser Antilles, increasing to fresh speeds
on Fri night.

$$
Landsea/ERA
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