[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230406
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Feb 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure ridging near Bermuda and lower pressure over Colombia
will continue to support pulsing NE winds to gale-force near the
coast of Colombia nightly through Fri night. The sea heights will
range from 11-13 ft within the strongest winds. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic from the coast of
Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from
03N22W to the equator at 40W. Scattered moderate with isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N-04N between 35W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak gradient between high pressure ridging over the western
Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico is generating moderate SE
winds across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are moderate.

For the forecast, these conditions are forecast to continue
through early Thu evening with winds pulsing to strong speeds at
night off the northern Yucatan peninsula. A cold front is expected
to enter the far NW Gulf Thu night, bringing strong N winds to
portions of the northern and western Gulf for the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

The gradient between high pressure ridging in the western Atlantic
and lower pressure over Colombia is producing strong NE winds over
the south-central Caribbean, reaching gale force off the coast of
Colombia. A recent altimeter pass confirmed 7-9 ft seas in the
south-western Caribbean with up to 11 ft likely closer to
Colombia. Strong winds are also funneling through Windward
Passage with a container ship reporting 25 kts from the NE. The
rest of the basin is dominated by moderate to fresh easterly
trades and moderate seas.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SW N Atlantic
waters extending a ridge across the northern half of the Caribbean
will continue to support gale force NE winds off the coast of
Colombia and fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba,
south of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage through late
Fri. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun night
followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Otherwise, moderate
trade winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the
Lesser Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri afternoon and
continue through Sun night along with building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad ridging extends across the northern part of the western
Atlantic, leading to mainly moderate easterly trades north of 26N
and west of 72W. Fresh trades reach farther south through the
Bahamas to the coasts of Cuba and Hispaniola. Recent altimeter
passes show that seas of 5-7 ft cover much of the western
Atlantic.

In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N55W to
20N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within
420 nm east of the trough axis. West of the trough, fresh to
strong NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft are confirmed by
scatterometer and buoy observations. East of the trough, fresh to
strong SE winds and rough seas to 10 ft are confirmed by
scatterometer and altimeter data. In the eastern Atlantic, a broad
area of low pressure near the Canary Islands is generating fresh
to strong winds north of the Islands with rough seas to 12 ft.
Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the basin with
rough seas north of 20N and moderate conditions farther south.

For the forecast west of 65W, a tightening gradient between high
pressure across the area and a broad trough to the east will
support fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly over the offshore
waters S of 27N through Fri. Afterwards, moderate to fresh NE
winds will dominate the region through Sat night. The next cold
front will move off the NE Florida coast Sun evening.

$$
FLYNN
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