[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
high in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue
to support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia each night through Fri. Seas will range between 8-12 ft
with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of Sierra Leone to 04N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N19W to
the coast of Brazil near the equator. Scattered moderate
convection is observed along the length of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Conditions are generally favorable across the basin. Moderate
southeasterly return flow has set up across the western Gulf,
causing low stratus and areas of marine fog in the northwestern
basin. Moderate easterly winds are present in the Florida Straits
with an area of fresh winds near the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle
winds prevail across the rest of the basin with no more than
moderate seas throughout.

For the forecast, high pressure across the Gulf will move east
Mon, leading to fresh to strong southerly return flow in the NW
Gulf starting Mon night and continuing into Tue night. A cold
front will enter the far NW Gulf Thu night, then bring strong N
winds to portions of the northern and western Gulf for the end of
the week.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

The gradient between high pressure north of the area and low
pressure over northern Colombia is causing enhanced trade wind
flow across the basin. Strong E-NE winds dominate the Colombian
Basin and Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh E-NE winds are
present elsewhere. Seas are generally moderate with rough
conditions in the Colombian Basin and southwest Caribbean.
Scattered passing showers are observed from Hispaniola to
Nicaragua.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds are
forecast in the lee side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across
the Windward Passage through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to
occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the tropical
north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the
forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 27N64W where it continues
as a stationary boundary toward the central Bahamas. The latest
scatterometer and altimeter data found moderate to fresh NE winds
and rough seas to 10 ft behind the front with gentle winds and
moderate seas ahead of the front. Farther East, the pattern is
dominated by a strong 1040 mb high pressure centered over the
Azores creating a gradient with lower pressure near the ITCZ.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas dominate the
central Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds dominate the eastern
Atlantic with rough to very rough seas. A recent altimeter pass
found seas reaching up to 15 ft north of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will dissipate
on Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds following the front will
diminish to mainly fresh speeds Mon. A tightening gradient between
high pressure that will settle in over the area in the wake of
the front, and an approaching broad trough from the E will lead
northeast to east winds increasing to fresh speeds over the most
of the southern forecast waters from late Wed through Thu night.
Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected near and in the
Windward Passage.

$$
FLYNN
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