[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Feb 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure currently located over the Mid-Atlantic states and
the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing
winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night
through Fri. Seas will range between 8-12 ft with the strongest
winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends to 04N18W. The ITCZ then
continues from 04N18W to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 01N-04N between 24W-30W, and from
the equator to 04N between 32W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front enters the Gulf of Mexico through the Florida
Straits, becoming a dissipating front near the northern coast of
western Cuba. A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf into
the central Bay of Campeche while another surface trough lingers
in the waters off the Texas coast. Scatterometer data captured
the wind shift associated with both troughs. A few showers are
likely associated with these features. The remainder of the Gulf
is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a strong 1034 mb
high pressure located over the Mid-Atlantic states. Surface
observations and latest satellite derived wind data show that
moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across most of the
eastern half of the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds
are on the W side of the SW trough. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft
in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate tonight,
with fresh winds offshore Veracruz, Mexico, also diminishing as
high pressure settles over the region. The high will move east on
Mon, leading to fresh to strong southerly return flow in the NW
Gulf starting Mon night and continuing into Tue night. A cold
front will enter the far NW Gulf Thu night, then bring strong N
winds to portions of the northern and western Gulf for the end of
the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent across the
Caribbean Sea. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
is mostly found in the central Caribbean, moving inland over
parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Isolated to scattered passing
showers could be associated with these patches of moisture.
The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of
strong to near gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia with
fresh to strong winds over the remainder of the south-central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere with
mainly fresh NE winds across the Windward passage and S of
Hispaniola. Seas of 7-10 ft are noted in the south-central
Caribbean and 4-7 ft seas in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds will
funnel through the Windward Passage into Fri. Otherwise, moderate
to occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the tropical
north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the
forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to the central Bahamas, where
it transitions into a stationary front that continues into the
Florida Straits. A few showers are noted near the frontal boundary.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds follow the front while seas in
the region are 7-10 ft. Farther east, a surface trough extends
from 29N49W to 16N51W. A few showers and thunderstorms are near
the northern end of the trough axis. Abundant multilayer clouds
with possible showers dominate most of the Atlantic waters
between 20W-50W.

A strong 1040 mb high pressure remains over the western Azores
with a ridge covering the remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters. The pressure gradient between the strong high pressure
and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is resulting in a
large area of fresh to strong winds mainly N of 10N and E of 50W
to the coast of W Africa. An altimeter pass indicates seas of 10
to 14 ft between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Canary Islands.
Seas of 8-10 ft dominate most of the Atlantic E of 55W based on
altimeter data.

For the forecast west of 65W, the above mentioned front will
stall overnight, then dissipate from west to east on Mon. Fresh
to strong northerly winds behind the front will diminish to
mainly fresh speeds on Mon. A tightening pressure gradient
between high pressure that will settle in over the area in the
wake of the front, and an approaching broad trough from the E
will lead northeast to east winds increasing to fresh speeds over
the most of the southern forecast waters from late Wed through
Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected near and
in the Windward Passage.

$$
GR
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