[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
high in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue
to support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia each night through Fri. Seas will range between 8-12 ft
with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of W Africa near 07N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ then continues from
04N18W to the coast of Brazil near the equator. Scattered
moderate convection is observed along the length of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Conditions are generally favorable across the basin. Moderate to
fresh southeasterly return flow has set up across the western half
of the Gulf, causing low stratus and areas of marine fog in the
northwestern basin. Seas of 4-5 ft are over this region. Gentle
to moderate return flow is elsewhere with seas in the 3-4 ft
range.

For the forecast, high pressure across the Gulf will move east
today, leading to fresh to strong southerly return flow in the NW
Gulf starting tonight and continuing into Tue night. A cold front
will enter the far NW Gulf Thu night, bringing strong N winds to
Tampico and Veracruz offshore waters through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

The gradient between high pressure north of the area and low
pressure over northern Colombia is causing enhanced trade wind
flow across the basin. Strong E-NE winds dominate the Colombian
Basin and Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh E-NE winds are
present elsewhere. Seas are generally moderate with rough
conditions in the Colombian Basin and southwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds in the lee
side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage
will prevail through Sat. Otherwise, moderate trade winds will
continue over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the
Lesser Antilles, increasing to fresh speeds with bulding seas Fri
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N52W to 29N55W where it transitions to
a shear line that continues to the Bahamas offshore waters near
25N72W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft are
behind the boundary with moderate winds and moderate seas ahead of
the front. Farther East, the pattern is dominated by a strong
1037 mb high pressure centered over the Azores creating a
gradient with lower pressure near the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and rough seas dominate the central Atlantic. Fresh
to strong NE winds dominate the eastern Atlantic with very rough
seas. Recent altimeter data show seas reaching up to 13 ft north
of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, the shear line is forecast to
dissipate today. A tightening gradient between high pressure
building over the area and an approaching broad trough from the
east will lead to northeast to east winds increasing to fresh
speeds over the most of the southern forecast waters from late Wed
through Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected
near and in the Windward Passage.

$$
Ramos
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