[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Feb 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure moving eastward across the eastern of the United
States and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulsing
winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night
through at least the middle of next week. Seas will range between
8 and 12 ft with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coastal plains of Sierra Leone, and extends to 05N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N17W to the equator at 48W. Convection is limited.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Marco Island, Florida southwestward
to 24.5N86W, where it becomes stationary to the Bay of Campeche.
A weak surface trough is analyzed ahead of the frontal boundary
and extends from 23N90W to 18.5N93W. Some shower activity is noted
along the front, particularly over south-central Florida. Behind
the front, abundant low level clouds are baking up againts the E
slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico. This cloudiness
dominates most of the western Gulf. The most recent scatterometer
data indicate fresh to locally strong northerly winds in the
wake of the front over the north-central Gulf while an altimeter
pass provided observations of seas to near 10 ft in the SW Gulf
near the Veracruz area. Light to gentle winds are ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will slowly drift southward
while weakening tonight. Strong to near gale- force northwest to north
winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz will linger into tonight, then
diminish early on Sun. The front will dissipate across the
eastern Gulf region on Sun as high pressure builds across the
southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over
the Gulf early next week, except for fresh to strong winds over
the north-central Gulf. A cold front is expected to drift into
the far NW Gulf Wed night and reach from Louisiana to south Texas
late Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow continues to
move across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. These patches of moisture are more concentarted over the
north-central Caribbean affecting mainly Hispaniola and Jamaica.
Latest scatterometer data indicate strong to near gale force
winds in the south-central, and mainly moderate to fresh winds
across the remainder of the basin, with the exception of gentle
to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft over the
eastern Caribbean, 7-9 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in
the NW part of the basin. Mainly moderate trades prevail E of
the Lesser Antilles with buoy 41040 located near 14.5N53W reporting
8 ft seas.

As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds
will funnel through the Windward Passage through Thu night.
Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will
continue over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the
Lesser Antilles through the period. Seas over these waters will
slowly subside through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N73W to near Lake Okeechobee in Florida.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstoms are along and ahead
of the frontal boundary affecting South Florida. Gentle to moderate
winds are on either side of the front per the most recent satellite
derived wind data. Similar wind speeds are noted elsewhere W of 60W
with lighter winds near the Bahamas. Seas are 5 to 8 ft E of the
Bahamas to about 55W based on an altimeter pass and buoy observations.
A surface trough is near 50W from 12N to 22W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are just E of the trough axis, mainly from 16N
to 19N between 46W and 50W.

Farther east, a strong 1042 mb high pressure centered over the
western Azores dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is resulting in a
large area of fresh to strong winds mainly N of 06N-08N and E of
50W to the coast of W Africa. A shear line is analyzed from
30N15W to 27N30W to 28N41W. Strong to near gale-force winds and
seas of 9-13 ft are found N of the shear line. Seas of 8-11 ft
are seen elsewhere E of 55W in association with the fresh to
strong trade winds.

As for the forecast west of 65W, the above mentioned front will
reach from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front
tonight into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will
control the weather pattern in the region for the remainder of
the forecast period.

$$
GR
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