[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200400
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will continue
support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia each night through mid-week. Seas will range between 8
and 12 ft in the southern Caribbean.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra
Leone, near 07N13W and extends to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from
05N16W to the equator at 40W. Convection is limited.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from southern Florida to the central Gulf
where it becomes stationary to the Bay of Campeche. Strong
northerly winds and rough seas are gradually abating in the
western Bay of Campeche. Buoys throughout the remainder of the
Gulf are reporting moderate to fresh NE winds with moderate seas.

For the forecast, the front will slowly drift southward while
weakening tonight. Strong to near gale-force northwest to north
winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz will diminish by early Sun
afternoon. The front will dissipate across the eastern Gulf region
on Sun as high pressure over the region shifts eastward through
Mon. Fresh to strong return flow will develop over the Gulf Mon
into early Tue. A cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf
Wed night and reach from Louisiana to S Texas late Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow continues to
move across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. Strong NE winds persist in the southern Colombian Basin
with rough seas affecting unprotected waters north of the Panama
Canal. Moderate to fresh E-NE winds are observed through the
remainder of the basin with strong NE winds impacting the Windward
Passage. Seas are generally moderate.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds will
funnel through the Windward Passage through Thu night. Otherwise,
moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the
tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles
through the period. Seas over these waters will slowly subside
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N70W to south Florida. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the frontal
boundary. The latest scatterometer satellite pass revealed
moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front with gentle
westerly winds ahead. Seas are moderate throughout the western
portion of the subtropical north Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 65W, the front will reach from near
31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly
winds are forecast in the wake of the front tonight into Sun.
High pressure in the wake of the front will control the weather
pattern in the region for the remainder of the forecast period.

Farther east, a strong 1042 mb high pressure near the Azores
dominates the pattern. A recent altimeter pass found very rough
seas to 15 ft just north of the Canary Islands in an area of
strong NE winds. North of 25N, strong NE-E winds and very rough
seas extend from the coast of Africa to 40W. The remainder of the
central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a very large area of
fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas.

$$
FLYNN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net