[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191711
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Feb 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between
ridging associated with a robust high pressure system over the
Azores and lower pressures in NW South America will continue to
induce pulsing minimal gale-force winds offshore NW Colombia each
night through at least the middle of next week. Seas will range
between 8 and 12 ft. An altimeter satellite pass from earlier this
morning confirmed seas up to 12 ft in the south-central
Caribbean.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the Sierra
Leone border to 05N17W. The ITCZ then extends from 05N17W to
00N35W. A surface trough is analyzed along 50W from 01N to 08N.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the surface
trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Bradenton Beach, Florida to 25N88W,
where it becomes a stationary front that bends southward toward
the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. A weak
surface trough is located in the eastern Bay of Campeche. A few
weak showers are noted near the frontal boundary and surface
trough. There is considerable cloudiness behind the frontal
boundary, covering most of the Gulf waters, while the SE Gulf
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions.

Strong to near gale-force NW winds are found in the offshore
waters of Veracruz. Seas in the area are 6-10 ft. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong N-NE
winds are present in the rest of the Gulf waters behind the
frontal boundary. Seas in the region are 4-8 ft. Gentle moderate
NE-N winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail ahead of the frontal
boundary.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will shift eastward
and weaken as it reaches from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche this morning. Strong to near gale- force
northwest to north winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz will linger
into tonight, then diminish early on Sun. The front will dissipate
across the eastern Gulf region on Sun as high pressure builds
across the southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh return flow will
develop over the Gulf early next week, except for fresh to strong
winds over the north-central Gulf. A cold front is expected to
move into the far NW Gulf Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

The strong present gradient as the result of the robust 1042 mb
high pressure near the Azores and lower pressures over NW South
America continue to support strong to near gale-force trades in
the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring
offshore NW Colombia. Fresh to locally strong trades are noted in
the north-central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds
affecting the waters offshore southern Hispaniola. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are prevalent in the rest of the basin. Seas
are 6-10 ft in the south-central Caribbean and 3-7 ft elsewhere.
The weather conditions remain fairly tranquil with only a few
patches of shallow moisture moving across the enclosed body of
water.

As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each
night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds will
funnel through the Windward Passage through Wed night.
Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will
continue over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the
Lesser Antilles through the period. Seas over these waters will
slowly subside through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N74W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida.
A surface trough is found ahead of the frontal boundary over the
NW Bahamas. Satellite imagery show isolated showers near these
boundaries. Moderate to occasionally fresh anticyclonic winds
prevail W of 60W, along with seas of 4-8 ft. Meanwhile, a surface
trough along 51W extends from 17N to 23W. A combination of these
system and divergence aloft is causing scattered showers from 19N
to 23N and between 45W and 53W.

Farther east, a strong 1042 mb subtropical high centered over the
Azorean archipelago dominates the rest of the tropical Atlantic.
The pressure gradient as the result of the strong ridge and lower
pressures over the deep tropics allow for a large region of fresh
to strong N-E winds across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. A shear line is analyzed from 31N16W to 27N30W to
29N41W. Strong to near gale-force winds are found north of the
shear line. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are present N of 26N and E of 41W,
while seas greater than 8 ft cover most of the tropical Atlantic
E of 60W.

As for the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned front will
reach from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front
tonight into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will
control the weather pattern in the region for the remainder of the
forecast period.

$$
DELGADO
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