[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
ridging associated to strong Atlantic high pressure and low
pressure in northern Colombia will continue to induce pulsing
gale-force winds offshore northern Colombia each night through the
middle of next week. The gale-force forecast winds are of 35 kt.
A 02Z overnight ASCAT pass confirmed the presence of these
winds. Maximum wave heights generated by these winds will reach
near 12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Sierra Leone/Guinea
border, then continues southwestward to near 05N17W, where
overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions
to the ITCZ to the equator at 39W. Weakening scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm northwest of the ITCZ between 17W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Crystal River, Florida southwestward to
25N90W, where it becomes stationary to 22N94W, to the Bay of
Campeche and to inland Mexico at 18N93W. Satellite imagery shows
broken to overcast low clouds along and within 120 nm northwest
of the cold front, and also to the west and northwest of the
stationary front to near 97W. Isolated showers are along and
within 30 nm of the cold front between 85W-89W. Patches of light
drizzle and rain are possible elsewhere within the aforementioned
low clouds. Areas of dense sea fog that are sharply reducing
visibility are observed on satellite imagery over the eastern
Gulf waters south of the cold front to near 24N and east of
about 86W. These areas of fog spread east to the interior
sections of central and South Florida.

A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure that
is ridging southward along the coast of Mexico and and the
stationary front continues to sustain strong to near gale-force
northwest to north winds in SW Gulf, with wave heights in the
range of 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh winds continue in the
northern Gulf with wave heights to 8 ft. Lighter marine
conditions are to the southeast of the frontal boundary, where
gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are present. Wave
heights with these winds are in the 2-3 ft range in the far
southeastern Gulf, Straits of Florida and in the Yucatan
Channel. Wave heights of 6-8 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche
are due to a north swell.

As for the forecast, the cold front will shift eastward, then
weaken as it reaches from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the central
Bay of Campeche this morning. Strong to near gale-force northwest
to north winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz will linger into
tonight, then diminish early on Sun. The front will dissipate
across the eastern Gulf region on Sun as high pressure builds
across the southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh return flow will
develop over the Gulf early next week, with fresh to strong winds
over the north-central Gulf. A cold front is expected to move into
the far NW Gulf Wed night followed by fresh to strong northeast
winds. The areas of fog over the eastern Gulf are forecast to
erode during the morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

The gradient between ridging from the Azores high and and a 1008
mb low over Colombia is continuing to generate enhanced easterly
trade wind flow across the basin. Shallow moisture embedded in
this flow is producing scattered showers throughout the basin.
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas to 9 ft
dominate the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh east winds are
over the eastern part of the sea along with wave heights of 5-8
ft. Gentle to moderate winds are over the northwestern
Caribbean, with wave heights in the range of 3-5 ft. Strong
northeast winds are in the Windward Passage and just to the
south of the Dominican Republic.

As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds will
funnel through the Windward Passage through Wed night. Otherwise,
moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the
tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles
through the period. Wave heights over these waters will subside a
little through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has entered the western Atlantic waters and
extends from 31N78W southwestward to inland north-central
Florida just north of Ormond Beach. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are along the front north of 29N. Latest
buoy observations are reporting moderate northwest winds behind
the front, and moderate to fresh southwest winds ahead of it.
Per latest altimeter data passes, wave heights are in the
6-9 ft range east of the Bahamas to 65W due to northeast
long-period swell.

East of 65W, the weather pattern is dominated by a very strong
"Spring" like 1041 mb high pressure center near the Azores. The
associated ridging interacting with lower pressure in the
tropics is producing a tight pressure gradient. As a result,
fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas dominate the
majority of the basin, north of the ITCZ and east of 65W. A shear
line is analyzed from near 31N20W to 29N31W and to 28N45W. Latest
scatterometer and altimeter satellite data passes indicate an
extensive swath of strong winds north of the shear line with very
rough wave heights in the range of 11-14 ft.

A surface trough extends from 26N52W to 18N50W. This feature is
supported by a highly amplified upper-level trough that stretches
from near from well northeast of the area, southwestward to 31N40W
and to a base near 18N59W. Upper dynamics with this trough in
in combination with the surface trough is helping to sustain an
area of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters from
19N to 25N between 47W-56W. The surface trough is forecast to
track westward and amplify during the weekend. Expect for the area
of scattered showers and thunderstorms to shift westward with
this feature.

As for the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front
will reach from near 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee by Sat
morning, and from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the wake of the
front tonight into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front
will control the weather pattern in the region for the remainder
of the forecast period.

$$
Aguirre
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