[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient due to
strong Atlantic high pressure interacting with low pressure in
northern Colombia will continue to induce pulsing gale-force
winds offshore northern Colombia at night, each night through
the middle of next week, with winds possibly reaching 40 kt at
times. The wave heights will range from 11-14 ft, with the
highest seas occurring during the early morning hours. Latest
scatterometer data confirmed the presence of minimal gale force
winds near the coast of Colombia while an altimeter pass
indicated seas of 12-14 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 18/1800 UTC, a cold front
extends from the Florida Big Bend to the central Gulf near 25N90W
to the central Bay of Campeche. The most recent satellite derived
wind data provided observations of gale force NW-N winds extending
from offshore of Tampico, Mexico to offshore of Veracruz, Mexico.
Seas of 8-10 ft were observed within these winds. The front will
shift eastward, then weaken as it reaches from near Ft. Myers,
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. Gale-force
northwest to north winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz will decrease
this evening. The front will dissipate across the eastern Gulf
region on Sun.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra
Leone/Guinea border, then continues SW to near 03N25W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N25W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted on satellite from 03N to 08N between 10W and
18W. Similar convective activity is evident from 03N to 05N
between 45W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning in the SW Gulf near the Veracruz area.

A cold front is analyzed from from the Florida Big Bend to the
Bay of Campeche. Conditions presently west of the front are
described above under Special Features. A surface trough is ahead
of the front and runs from 24N91W to 19N94W. Gentle SE to S winds
are east of the front, over the eastern Gulf, where the latest
buoy and altimeter data indicates seas generally 3 to 4 ft.
Visible satellite imagery indicates a rope cloud that delineate
the leading edge of the front.

As for the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will dissipate
across the eastern Gulf region on Sun as high pressure builds
across the southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh return flow will
develop over the Gulf early next week, except for fresh to strong
winds over the north-central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic, producing isolated to scattered
passing showers. The San Juan Doppler radar indicated locally heavy
rain with these patches of moisture. Latest scatterometer data
indicate strong to near gale force winds in the south-central,
fresh to strong NE winds in the Gulf of Venezuela, and mainly
moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the basin, with
the exception of gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean.
Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean and 7-9 ft in the
central Caribbean, except 9-14 ft in the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NW part of the
basin. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail E of the Lesser
Antilles

As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each
night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel
through the Windward Passage through Wed night. Moderate to locally
fresh trades and seas in the 6-8 ft in NE to E swell will prevail
E of the Lesser Antilles during the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The weather pattern is dominated by a very strong 1041 mb high
pressure located W of the Azores near 39N36W. This is creating
an enhanced pressure gradient with lower pressure near the ITCZ
and South America. As a result, fresh or stronger easterly winds
dominate the majority of the basin, north of the ITCZ and east of
65W. West of 65W, mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail. Fresh to
strong winds are noted per scatterometer data off NE Florida
ahead of the cold front currently moving across the Gulf of
Mexico. An area of multilayer clouds with embedded showersand
thunderstorms is noted over the central Atlantic, particularly N
of 20N between 40W and 60W. This convective activity is associated
with an upper level trough, and is more concentrated from 19N to
22n between 55W and 60W. A shear line extends from 31N25W to 28N50W.
The latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate an extensive
swath of strong to near gale- force northeast winds north of the
shear line with fresh to strong winds to the south. Sea heights
of 12-15 ft are in the wake of the shear line.

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move off northern
Florida this evening. The front will reach from near 31N75W to
near Lake Okeechobee by Sat morning, and from near 31N60W to the
NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
forecast in the wake of the front Sat night into Sun. High pressure
in the wake of the front will control the weather pattern in the
region for the remainder of the forecast period.

Strong high pressure centered west of the Azores combined with a
surface trough approaching the Morocco offshore waters will induce
strong N to NE winds and rough seas in the marine zones of Agadir
and Tarfaya on Sat, according to the latest forecast from Meteo
France.

$$
GR
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