[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190409
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight gradient between ridging from
strong Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in northern
Colombia will continue to induce pulsing gale-force winds offshore
northern Colombia each night through the middle of next week,
with winds possibly reaching 40 kt at times. The wave heights will
range from 11-14 ft, with the highest seas occurring during the
early morning hours.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra
Leone/Guinea border, then continues SW to near 05N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N17W to the equator at 39W. Scattered moderate with
isolated strong convection is noted on satellite from 02N to 07N
between 16W and 20W. Scattered weak convection is also noted from
02S to 05N between 25W and 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of
Campeche. Scattered weak convection is observed along the frontal
boundary. While the gale warning has expired tonight, winds
remain strong to near gale force the SW Gulf with rough seas to 10
ft. Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the northern Gulf with
moderate seas to 8 ft. Conditions are more favorable ahead of the
front with a gentle breeze and slight seas in the SE Gulf, Florida
Straits and Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the cold front will shift eastward, then weaken
as it reaches from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche by Sat morning. Strong to near gale-force northwest to
north winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz will linger into Sat
night, then diminish early on Sun. The front will dissipate across
the eastern Gulf region on Sun as high pressure builds across the
southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over
the Gulf early next week, with fresh to strong winds over the
north-central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

The gradient between ridging from the Azores high and and a 1008
mb low over Colombia is continuing to generate enhanced easterly
trade wind flow across the basin. Shallow moisture embedded in
this flow is producing scattered showers throughout the basin.
Fresh to strong E-NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft dominate the
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E winds are observed in the
eastern basin with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds
dominate the NW Caribbean with slight to moderate seas. Strong
winds are noted in the Windward Passage and south of the DR.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds will
funnel through the Windward Passage through Wed night. Otherwise,
moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the
tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles
through the period. Seas over these waters will subside a little
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has entered the western Atlantic waters extending
from 31N79W to St. Augustine, FL. Scattered moderate convection is
observed along the frontal boundary. Buoys are reporting moderate
NW winds behind the front with moderate SW winds ahead. Moderate
seas in the area range from 6 to 8 ft. East of 65W, the weather
pattern is dominated by a very strong 1043 mb high pressure near
the Azores. This is creating an enhanced pressure gradient with
lower pressure in the deep tropics. As a result, fresh to strong
easterly winds and rough seas dominate the majority of the basin,
north of the ITCZ and east of 65W. A shear line extends from
31N20W to 28N44W. Scatterometer and altimeter satellite data
indicate an extensive swath of strong winds north of the shear
line with very rough seas of 13-15 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, The cold front will reach from near
31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee by Sat morning, and from near
31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly
winds are forecast in the wake of the front Sat night into Sun.
High pressure in the wake of the front will control the weather
pattern in the region for the remainder of the forecast period.

$$
FLYNN
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