[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient due to
strong Atlantic high pressure interacting with low pressure in
northern Colombia will continue to induce gale-force winds
pulsing offshore northern Colombia at night, each night through
the middle of next week, with winds possibly reaching 40 kt at
times. The wave heights will range from 11-14 ft, with the
highest during the early morning hours. A recent ASCAT satellite
wind data pass from 18/1454 UTC shows near gale force NE-ENE winds
from 11N to 12.5N between 74W and 76W, with winds as high as 33
kt. A recent satellite altimeter pass from 18/1200 UTC measured
significant wave heights as high as 14 ft in the vicinity of 11.7N
76.2W, with 12-14 ft waves occurring from 10.5N to 12.5N along the
satellite's path, which was along 76W at the time.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 18/1500 UTC, a cold front
extends from Apalachicola, Florida to 23N95W to Veracruz, Mexico.
Northerly winds over the NW Gulf have now diminished to fresh to
strong. However, a recent ASCAT data pass from 18/1632 UTC shows
near-gale to gale force NW to N winds extending from offshore of
Tampico, Mexico to offshore of Veracruz, Mexico, within 150 nm of
the coast. Gale force winds are expected to continue through this
afternoon offshore of Veracruz, with seas to 10 ft. The front
will shift eastward, then weaken as it reaches from near Ft.
Myers, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning.
Winds will diminish below gale force tonight. However, strong to
near gale force NW winds will continue offshore Veracruz, and in
the west-central Bay of Campeche, through Sat evening before
diminishing.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure centered over the
Azores combined with a surface trough approaching the Morocco
offshore waters will induce gale force north winds within about
120 nm of the coast of Morocco on Sat in the marine zones of
Agadir and Tarfaya, according to the latest forecast from Meteo
France. Seas in the area will build to 13-14 ft. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from the coast of
southern Guinea near 09N13W to 09N16W, and southwestward to near
03N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 00N39W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is evident on satellite from 03N to
08N between 07W and 16W. Scattered showers are noted south of 04N
between 20W and 32W, and from 02N to 04N between 38W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
gale warning in the SW Gulf area.

A cold front is analyzed from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz,
Mexico. Conditions presently west of the front are described
above under Special Features. Gentle S winds are east of the
front, over the eastern Gulf, where the latest buoy and altimeter
data indicates seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and
tstorms are ahead of the front over the east-central Gulf.

As for the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it reaches
from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sat
morning, then dissipate across the eastern Gulf region on Sun as
high pressure builds across the southeastern U.S. Moderate to
fresh return flow will develop over the Gulf early next week,
except for fresh to strong winds over the north-central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia.

Relative dry air prevails in the mid- to upper-levels over the
western and central Caribbean, with a few showers noted near
Puerto Rico associated with the trade wind flow. The latest ASCAT
pass shows mainly fresh winds across the eastern and central
Caribbean, with strong to near gale force winds in the central to
southwest Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean
and 7-9 ft in the central Caribbean, except 9-14 ft in the south-
central basin. Moderate trades prevail over the northwest
Caribbean, where seas are 3-5 ft.

As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Tue night, while fresh to strong trade winds
will dominate most of the east and central Caribbean today. Fresh
to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward Passage
through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The weather pattern is dominated by a very strong 1044 mb high
pressure in the north-central Atlantic well to the N of the area
near 40N38W. This is creating an enhanced gradient with lower
pressure near the ITCZ and South America. As a result, fresh or
stronger easterly winds dominate the majority of the basin, north
of the ITCZ and east of 65W. The winds become more moderate
southerly in the western Atlantic, west of 70W, where weak ridging
is in place. A shear line extends across the northern portion of
the discussion area in the central Atlantic from near 31N29W to
28N48W. Scattered showers are noted from 21N-30N between 41W-57W,
enhanced by an upper-level trough. The latest scatterometer
satellite data passes indicate an extensive swath of near gale-
force northeast winds north of the shear line with fresh to strong
winds to the south. Altimeter data passes from this morning show
wave heights of 13-15 ft to the north of the shear line, with wave
heights of 8-12 ft reaching as far south as 12N. Seas of 6-8 ft
prevail east of 35W and south of 25N.

For the forecast west of 60W, strong high pressure located N of
the area will shift eastward allowing for the next cold front to
move off northern Florida by Fri evening. The front will reach
from near 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee by Sat morning, and from
near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are expected ahead of the front today, north of
29N. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the wake of
the front Sat night into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the
front will control the weather pattern in the region for the
remainder of the forecast period.

For the forecast east of 60W, fresh to strong trade winds and
building seas will continue through today over the tropical north
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles. Strong NE winds and
seas of 9 to 14 ft will continue over the waters north of 15N and
east of 40W through Sun night.

$$
Hagen/Hogsett
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net