[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150918
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
Atlantic high pressure and lower surface pressures in Colombia
and Panama, will continue to support strong to minimal gale-
force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of
Colombia, mainly at night, through Thu night. Peak wave heights
with these winds are forecast to reach near 12 ft during the
overnight and early morning hours near 11.5N75.5W.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 04N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N19W to 03N30W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 02N between
08W and 13W, from 02N to 05N between 20W and 24W, from 02N to 07N
between 29W and 42W, and from 00N to 03N between 46W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is centered offshore of the northern Gulf. Fresh to
strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are in the southeast Gulf,
including through the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate winds
dominate the remainder of the basin, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft,
except 2 to 4 ft in the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
continue into Wed night over the SE Gulf and Florida Straits.
Fresh to strong southerly return flow is forecast to develop over
the NW Gulf tonight through Wed night. These strong winds will
move east across the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu. The next
cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf on Thu, and
extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico, early Fri.
The front will move very slowly southeast during the start of the
weekend, possibly stalling out and dissipating by the end of the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Gale Warning for offshore waters of the northern coast
of Colombia.

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20.5N77W to
16N86W near the north-central coast of Honduras. Heavy rainfall
amounts are possible in NW Honduras to central Guatemala today.
Otherwise, scattered to isolated showers are possible over the
northwestern Caribbean along and west of the front. Fresh to
strong NE winds are blowing west of the front. Seas of 6 to 9 ft
in northerly swell through the Yucatan channel prevail west of
83W, with 5 to 7 ft north of the front and east of 83W. Fresh to
strong winds and 5 to 8 ft seas surround the area of gale-force
winds in the south-central Caribbean, with mainly moderate to
fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft elsewhere southeast of the
front, including through the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, winds are expected to pulse to gale force off
Colombia each night through Thu night. the stationary front will
dissipate later today. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected west
of the front, including in the lee of Cuba, through early Wed with
building seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to funnel
through the Windward Passage tonight through Thu night. Strong
winds are forecast to expand in areal coverage over the central
Caribbean Sea tonight through Thu night. Trade winds with
strengthen and seas will build over the tropical north Atlantic
waters east of the Lesser Antilles tonight through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to near the Turks and Caicos
Islands where it continues as stationary to eastern Cuba. A second
cold front is within 75 nm to the west of the front north of 28N.
Rain is possible within 60-120 nm on either side of the fronts.
Fresh to strong winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are south of 27N and
west of the front, with moderate to fresh winds north of 27N and
west of the front, except fresh to strong within 120 nm west of
the front. Seas of 6 to 10 ft in northerly swell are north of 27N
and west of the front.

To the east, high pressure north of the area near the Azores
dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure
associated with the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE to E
trades and wave heights in the range of 8 to 11 ft south of 24N
between 30W and 60W, with similar trades and 6 to 8 ft seas from
18N to 26N between the coast of Africa and 30W. Lighter winds and
lower seas are present elsewhere.

As for the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will gradually
stall through Wed, becoming a shearline through Wed night. Fresh
to strong winds north and west of the boundary will expand in
coverage as high pressure strengthens, encompassing much of the
waters through Thu. High pressure will settle into the region at
the end of the week leading to improving conditions. A weaker cold
front may move off northern Florida Fri night through Sat night.

$$
Lewitsky
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