[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
Atlantic high pressure and lower surface pressures in Colombia
and Panama, will continue to support strong to minimal gale-
force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of
Colombia, mainly at night, through Thu night. Peak wave heights
with these winds are forecast to reach near 12 ft during the
overnight and early morning hours near 11.5N75.5W.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the border of Guinea
and Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues to 05N19W. The ITCZ
then extends from 05N19W to 02N32W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W.
Isolated showers are noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging prevails. The latest observations and
scatterometer data indicate mainly moderate E to SE flow across
the western and central Gulf, increasing to fresh in the eastern
Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft in the northern and western Gulf, 4-6 ft in
the central and eastern Gulf, and 6-8 ft in the SE Gulf, including
through the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
continue into Wed night over the SE Gulf and Florida Straits.
Fresh to strong southerly return flow is forecast to develop over
the NW Gulf tonight through Wed night. These strong winds will
move east across the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu. The next
cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf on Thu, and
extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico, early Fri.
The front will move very slowly southeast during the start of the
weekend, possibly stalling out and dissipating by the end of the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning for offshore waters near the coast of Colombia.

A stationary front extends from Cabo Cruz, Cuba to La Ceiba,
Honduras near 16N86W. Heavy rainfall amounts are possible in NW
Honduras to central Guatemala today. Otherwise, scattered to
isolated showers are possible over the northwestern Caribbean
along and west of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds are blowing
west of the front, with 6-8 ft seas. In the south-central
Caribbean, strong to near gale force winds were detected by the
latest scatterometer pass, within an area from 10N to 13N between
74W and 78W. Seas in this area are 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate
to fresh trades are noted, with 6-8 ft seas in the central
Caribbean and 4-6 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds are expected to pulse to gale force off
Colombia each night through Thu night while strong winds will
expand in areal coverage across the central Caribbean Sea tonight
through Thu night. Also, fresh to strong NE winds will funnel
through the Windward Passage during this time period. A stationary
front from far eastern Cuba to north-central Honduras will
dissipate later today. Fresh to strong NE winds to the west of the
front, including in the lee of Cuba, will continue through Wed
with building seas. Otherwise, trade winds will strengthen and
seas will build over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of
the Lesser Antilles tonight through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 24N70W, where it becomes
stationary and continues to the coast of Cuba near 21N75W. Fresh
to strong NE winds and 6-10 ft seas are noted west of the front to
77W. West of 77W to the US Coast, NE winds are moderate and seas
are 3-6 ft. North of 20N and east of the front, moderate E to SE
winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail. Fresh to locally strong trades and
6-10 ft seas in NE swell are analyzed south of 20N from 35W to the
Lesser Antilles. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the
influence of the Azores High, which supports fresh trades and
6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will
gradually stall and weaken through Wed, and then become a
shearline through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds to the west of
the boundary will expand across the region as high pressure
strengthens through Thu. High pressure will settle into the region
at the end of the week leading to improved conditions. A weaker
cold front is fore cast to move off northern Florida Fri night
through Sat night.

$$
Mahoney
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