[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
Atlantic high pressure and lower surface pressures in Colombia
and Panama, will continue to support strong to minimal gale-
force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of
Colombia, mainly at night, through Fri. Peak wave heights with
these winds are forecast to reach near 12 ft during the overnight
and early morning hours. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 04N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N19W to 03N30W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 19W to 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 mb high pressure center is anchored off the SE coast of
Louisiana allowing for anticyclonic flow over the Gulf of
Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass noted moderate to
fresh NE winds south of 25N and east of 93W, where seas are most
likely 6 to 9 ft. The strongest winds are in the far southeast
region of the basin, including within the Yucatan Channel where
sea heights are up to 9 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate flow
is noted with slight seas in the northern Gulf and moderate seas
in the central and southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
continue into Wed night over the SE Gulf and Florida Straits.
Fresh to strong southerly return flow is forecast to develop
over the NW Gulf Tue night through Wed night. These strong winds
will move E across the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu. The
next cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf on Thu and
extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico, early
Fri. The front will move very slowly southeast during the start
of the weekend, possibly stalling out and dissipating by the end
of the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Gale Warning for offshore waters of the northern coast
of Colombia.

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to 16N86W offshore
Honduras. Isolated showers are possible over the northwestern
Caribbean along and west of the front. A scatterometer satellite
pass found strong N-NE winds west of the front where seas are
likely 6 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the SW
basin, where seas are also 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, fresh winds
prevail, with 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, winds are expected to pulse to gale force off
Colombia each night through Thu night. The stationary front from
far eastern Cuba to northern Honduras will dissipate by Tue.
Fresh to strong NE winds are expected northwest of the front,
including in the lee of Cuba, through early Wed with building
seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to funnel through
the Windward Passage Tue night through Thu night. Strong winds
are forecast to expand in areal coverage over the central
Caribbean Sea Tue night through Thu night. Trade winds with
strengthen and seas will build over the tropical north Atlantic
waters east of the Lesser Antilles Tue night through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N62W to the southeastern
Bahamas where the boundary becomes stationary to eastern Cuba
near 21N76W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are front N of 28N and
fresh to strong N-NE winds are W of the front, where wave
heights are in the range of 8-10 ft. Isolated showers are likely
within 120 nm of the front. A satellite scatterometer pass noted
moderate easterly flow south of 28N to 55W, along with waves
heights of 5 to 7 ft.

High pressure anchored by a 1032 mb high center that is N of the
area near 34N36W covers the remainder of the area. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure associated
with the ITCZ is supporting strong NE to E trades and wave
heights in the range of 8 to 10 ft from 06N to 19N between 35W
to 50W. Fresh trades and wave heights of 7 to 9 ft are elsewhere
north of the ITCZ to 27N between 16W to 55W. Lighter winds and
lower wave heights are present elsewhere.

As for the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will gradually
stall through Wed, becoming a shearline through Wed night. Fresh
to strong winds north and west of the boundary will expand in
coverage as high pressure strengthens, encompassing much of the
waters through Thu. High pressure will settle into the region at
the end of the week leading to improving conditions. A weaker
cold front may move off northern Florida Fri night through Sat
night.

$$
Mora
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