[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
Atlantic high pressure and lower surface pressures in Colombia
and Panama, will continue to support strong to minimal gale-
force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of
Colombia, mainly at night, through Fri night. Peak wave heights
with these winds are forecast to reach near 12 ft during the
overnight and early morning hours. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the border of
Liberia and the Ivory Coast near 05N08W and extends to 04N18W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 04N32W to 00N44W. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted between 14W
and the African coast from 01N to 08N. Scattered moderate
convection is also observed from 02N to 06N between 23W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 mb high pressure is centered off the coast of Texas near
28N95W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds cover the NW and
west-central Gulf. Fresh N to NE winds are farther east and
south, with fresh to strong N winds noted over the Florida
Straits, Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf. Seas range from 8 to 12 ft
over the southern Gulf, highest in the southern Bay of Campeche. The
lowest seas of 2 to 4 ft are found in the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, marine conditions will improve today as this
high pressure centered just offshore the mouth of the Rio Grande
builds SE into the Gulf. However, fresh to locally strong NE to
E winds will continue into Wed night over the SE Gulf and
Florida Straits. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is
forecast to develop over the NW Gulf Tue night through Wed
night. These strong winds will move E across the northern Gulf
Wed night into Thu. The next cold front is expected to enter the
western Gulf on Thu, and extend from the Florida Panhandle to
Veracruz, Mexico, early Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Gale Warning offshore of the northern coast of Colombia.

A cold front extends into the NW Caribbean from central Cuba
near 21N78W to 21N81W, where it transitions to a stationary
front and continues to the western coast of Honduras near
16N87W. A trough is analyzed ahead of the front from 19.5N79W to
16N84W. Isolated showers are possible near both of these
features. Strong N-NE winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft are west of
the front with fresh NE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft in the NW
Caribbean ahead of the front. Across the remainder of the basin,
fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail. Moderate to fresh
trades dominate the waters south of 19N and west of 72W, with
gentle to moderate NE to E winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft
in the eastern Caribbean and 6 to 9 ft south of 15N in the
central Caribbean, with seas up to 11 ft offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, winds are expected to pulse to gale force off
Colombia each night into Fri night. The stalling cold front that
stretches from eastern Cuba to the Honduras-Nicaragua border will
dissipate Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected northwest
of the front, including in the lee of Cuba, into Tue night with
building seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to funnel
through the Windward Passage Tue through Thu night. Strong winds
are forecast to expand in areal coverage over the central
Caribbean Sea Tue night into Thu. Trade winds with strengthen
and seas will build over the tropical north Atlantic waters east
of the Lesser Antilles, Tue through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N68W to central Cuba near 22N77W.
Strong to locally near gale force winds are occurring both ahead
of and behind the front, mainly N of 29.5N. Fresh to strong N winds
behind the front extend over the NW Bahamas and Florida Straits.
Isolated showers are within 100 nm ahead of the front, mainly north
of 28N. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are observed in a recent altimeter pass on
both sides of the front, mainly north of 28N. Generally moderate
winds are present south of 27N between 60W-78W with 5 to 7 ft seas.

To the east, a weak surface trough is analyzed from 23N55W to
16N56W with the remainder of the basin under the influence of
broad high pressure ridging that is anchored by a 1032 mb high
pressure center near 34N38W. As a result of the pressure
gradient between the high pressure and ITCZ, strong trades with
9-12 ft seas are present from 12N-21N between 35W-50W. Fresh
trades and 7-9 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of the ITCZ to
27N between 16W-55W. Weaker winds and lower seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong winds occurring on both sides of the
cold front that extends from Bermuda through the SE Bahamas to
eastern Cuba will diminish by tonight. The northern part of the
front will continue moving E while the southern portions will
stall from the Turks and Caicos Islands to the Windward Passage.
High pressure will strengthen north of the area in the  wake of
the front, causing strong NE to E winds to develop over
the entire area Tue and persist into Thu. High pressure will
settle into the region at the end of the week leading to
improving conditions.

$$
Nepaul
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