[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
Atlantic high pressure and lower surface pressures in Colombia
and Panama, will continue to support strong to minimal gale-
force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of
Colombia, mainly at night, through Fri. Peak wave heights with
these winds are forecast to reach near 12 ft during the overnight
and early morning hours. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the border of
Liberia and the Ivory Coast near 05N08W and extends to 04N22W,
where latest scatterometer data indicated that it transitions to
the ITCZ to 03N30W and to 01N48W. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is noted between 14W and the African
coast from 01N to 08N. Scattered moderate convection is also
observed from 02N to 06N between 23W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered over southern Texas,
with a ridge extending southward across eastern Mexico and to
southeastern Mexico. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds cover
the NW and west-central Gulf. Fresh N to NE winds are farther
east and south, with fresh to strong N winds in the Straits of
Florida, Yucatan Channel and in the southeastern Gulf. Wave
heights range from 6-9 ft in the eastern Gulf, to 5-7 ft in the
NE and eastern Bay of Campeche, 4-6 ft in the SW Gulf, 3-5 ft in
west- central and north-central Gulf and lower wave heights of
2-4 ft in the NW Gulf.

Small patches of light rain are in the west-central Gulf.

As for the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
continue into Wed night over the SE Gulf and Florida Straits.
Fresh to strong southerly return flow is forecast to develop over
the NW Gulf Tue night through Wed night. These strong winds will
move E across the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu. The next
cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf on Thu, and
extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico, early Fri

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Gale Warning offshore of the northern coast of Colombia.

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to 20N83W and
southwest to inland northeastern Honduras near 15N86W. Isolated
showers are possible over the northwestern Caribbean along and
west of the front. Strong N-NE winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft are
west of the front with fresh NE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft in
the NW Caribbean ahead of the front. Across the remainder of the
basin, fairly tranquil weather conditions continue. Moderate to
fresh trades are over the waters south of 19N and west of 72W,
with gentle to moderate NE to E winds elsewhere. Wave heights are
in the 5-7 ft range in the eastern Caribbean and 7-10  ft south
of 15N in the central Caribbean, with seas up to 11 ft offshore
Colombia.

As for the forecast, winds are expected to pulse to gale force
off Colombia each night through Fri. A stationary front that
stretches from eastern Cuba to northern Nicaragua will dissipate
by Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected northwest of the
front, including in the lee of Cuba into Tue night with building
seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to funnel through
the Windward Passage Tue through Thu night. Strong winds are
forecast to expand in areal coverage over the central Caribbean
Sea Tue night into Thu. Trade winds with strengthen and seas will
build over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser
Antilles Tue night through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas
and to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Fresh to strong SW winds are
E of the front N of 28N and fresh to strong northerly winds are
W of the front. Broken to overcast mainly low clouds, with
isolated showers are within 100 nm ahead of the front, mainly
north of 27N and within 60 nm ESE of the front S of 27N. Wave
heights are 8-9 ft on both sides of the front, mainly north of
28N. Generally moderate winds are present south of 27N between
60W-78W along with wave heights of 5-7 ft.

High pressure, anchored by a 1032 mb high center that is N of the
area near 34N38W covers the remainder of the area. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure associate
to the ITCZ, strong NE to E trades, with 9-12 ft seas are
present from 12N-21N between 35W- 50W. Fresh trades and 7-9 ft
seas are noted elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 27N between 16W-
55W. Weaker winds and lower wave heights are present elsewhere.

As for the forecast W of 65W, fresh to strong winds occurring on
both sides of the cold front that extends from just E of Bermuda
south-southwestward to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern
Cuba will diminish by tonight. The northern part of the front
will continue moving E while the southern portions will stall
from the Turks and Caicos Islands to the Windward Passage. High
pressure will strengthen north of the area in the wake of the
front, causing strong NE to E winds to develop over the entire
area Tue and persist into Thu. High pressure will settle into the
region at the end of the week leading to improving conditions.

$$
Aguirre
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