[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141116
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
Atlantic high pressure and lower surface pressures in Colombia
and Panama, will continue to support strong to minimal gale-
force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of
Colombia, mainly at night, through Fri night. Peak wave heights
with these winds are forecast to reach near 12 ft during the
overnight and early morning hours. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Ivory Coast near
05N04W to 04N08W to 05N18W. A surface trough extends from 08N18W
to 00N24W. The ITCZ begins west of the surface trough, from 03N24W
to 02N34W to 00N43W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 08W and 14W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 02N to 06N between 22W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1033 mb is centered off the coast of Texas near
28N95W. Gentle anticyclonic winds cover the NW and west-central
Gulf. Fresh N winds are farther east and south, with fresh to
strong N winds noted over the Florida Straits, Yucatan Channel and
SE Gulf. Seas range from 8 to 12 ft over the southern Gulf,
highest in the southern Bay of Campeche. The lowest seas of 2 to 4
ft are found in the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, conditions are expected to gradually improve
across the Gulf today. However, fresh to locally strong NE to E
winds will continue through Wed over the SE Gulf and Florida
Straits. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is forecast to
develop over the NW Gulf Tue night through Wed night. These strong
winds will move E across the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu.
The next cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf on Thu,
and extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico early
Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Gale Warning offshore of the northern coast of Colombia.

A cold front is in the NW Caribbean from central Cuba near 22N79W
to 20N83.5W, then continues as a stationary front to the coast of
Honduras near 16N87W. A trough is ahead of the front within 60
nm. Isolated showers are possible near both of these features.
Strong N-NE winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft are west of the front.
The remainder of the Caribbean is fairly quiet with some isolated
showers possible in the trade wind flow. Moderate to fresh trades
dominate the waters south of 18N and east of 83W, with gentle to
moderate N-NE winds elsewhere ahead of the front. Seas are 5 to 8
ft in the eastern Caribbean, 6 to 9 ft in the central Caribbean
south of 18N, and 3 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean ahead of the
front. Offshore Colombia, seas are up to 11 ft.

For the forecast, the front will extend from eastern Cuba to
16N87W by tonight, where it is forecast to stall before
dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected northwest
of the front, including in the lee of Cuba, through Tue with
building seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to funnel
through the Windward Passage early Tue through late week. Strong
winds are forecast to expand in areal coverage over the central
Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night. Trade winds will strengthen and
seas will build over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of
the Lesser Antilles, Tue through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N72W to central Cuba near 22N79W.
Strong to locally near gale force winds are occurring both ahead
of and behind the front, mainly N of 27N. Fresh to strong N winds
behind the front extend over the NW Bahamas and Florida Straits.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm ahead of the front, mainly
north of 26N. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are on both sides of the front,
mainly north of 27.5N. Generally moderate winds are present south
of 25N between 60W-75W with 5 to 7 ft seas.

To the east, a surface trough is along 55/56W from 12N-23N. The
trough is becoming less defined at the surface while the mid to
upper level presence is more obvious. Broad high pressure ridging
dominates the remainder of the basin north of the ITCZ, anchored
by a 1030 mb high pressure near 34N38W. An area of strong trades
with 9-12 ft seas is noted from 08N-19N between 32W-50W. Fresh
trades and 7-9 ft seas are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 25N
between 20W-55W. Weaker winds and lower seas are close to a
broad surface ridge, which extends from 31N48W to 27N60W to
22N70W.

For the forecast, strong to locally near gale force winds will
persist near the west Atlantic front through the morning hours
today before diminishing, primarily to the north and northeast of
the Bahamas. By Tue morning, the front will extend from 26N65W to
21N76W, where it will become stationary. High pressure will
strengthen north of the area in the wake of the front, causing
strong NE to E winds to expand over the entire western and central
Atlantic Tue morning through Wed night, along with building seas.
This area of strong winds will then move E to the central and
eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 24N, Thu through Fri night.
Winds and seas will finally begin to diminish over the western
Atlantic on Fri as a weak high pressure ridge settles over the
area.

$$
Hagen
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