[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140449
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
Atlantic high pressure and lower surface pressures in Colombia
and Panama, will continue to support strong to minimal gale-
force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of
Colombia, mainly at night, through Fri night. Peak wave heights
with these winds are forecast to reach near 12 ft during the
overnight and early morning hours.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong high pressure continues
across the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front
which has pushed southeast of the basin. Gale force winds
continue offshore of Veracruz Mexico in the SW Gulf of Mexico.
Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force later tonight.
Very large seas of 13 to 17 ft will gradually subside as winds
diminish through the early part of the week with the high
pressure weakening.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
Prime Meridian at 06N to 04N10W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N20W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 04N between 12W and 15W, from
03N to 05N between 22W and 24W, from 01N to 03N between 28W and
31W, and from 03N to 04N between 31W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Gale Warning.

High pressure continues to build across the basin in the wake
of a now departed cold front. Outside of the area of gale force
winds in the SW Gulf, fresh to strong northerly winds and seas
of 6 to 10 ft dominate the southeastern half of the Gulf, with
moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 7 ft across the northwestern
half of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds continue over much of
the Gulf tonight in the wake of the cold front. Conditions are
expected to gradually improve across the Gulf by late Mon as the
high pressure builds across the basin. However, fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds will continue through Tue night over the SE
Gulf and Florida Straits. Fresh to strong southerly return flow
is forecast to develop over the NW Gulf Tue night through Wed.
These strong winds will move E across the northern Gulf Wed
night into Thu. The next cold front is likely to enter the
western Gulf late in the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Gale Warning offshore of the northern coast of Colombia.

A cold front is in the NW Caribbean from western Cuba near 22N81W
to the NW coast of Honduras near the border of Guatemala at
16N88W. A trough is ahead of the front within 60 nm. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near both of
these features. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft
are west of the front. The remainder of the Caribbean is fairly
quiet with some isolated to widely scattered showers possible on
the trade wind flow. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the
waters south of 18N and west of 83W, with gentle to moderate N-
NE winds elsewhere ahead of the front. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the
eastern Caribbean, 6 to 9 ft in the central Caribbean south of
18N, and 3 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the cold front should extend from eastern Cuba
to NE Honduras by Mon night, where it is forecast to stall
before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected
northwest of the front through Tue with building seas. Fresh to
strong NE winds are expected to funnel through the Windward
Passage Mon night through late week. Strong winds are forecast
to expand in areal coverage over the central Caribbean Sea Wed
and Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N75W to across the far NW
Bahamas to near the coast of north-central Cuba at 23N80W. A
trough is ahead of the front within 30-90 nm. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are possible near and between both
features. Another trough is trailing the front from 31N78W to
near the Space Coast of Florida. Fresh to strong winds are and 6
to 7 ft seas behind the front, and also north of 28N ahead of
the front to 65W where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are ahead of the front and trough to
65W.

To the east, a surface trough extends from 25N45W to 14N47W with
isolated to scattered showers possible near the trough. The
trough is becoming less defined at the surface while the mid to
upper level presence is more obvious. Broad high pressure
ridging dominates the remainder of the basin north of the ITCZ.
Fresh to strong trades are noted north of the ITCZ to around 24N
between 25W and 55W along with seas of 7 to 10 ft, locally to 11
ft near 15N44.5W. Moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 8 ft seas
are elsewhere south of 26N and east of 65W, with gentle to
moderate E-SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere east of 65W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the front is forecast to extend
from 27N65W to eastern Cuba late Mon night. High pressure is
expected to strengthen north of the area in the wake of the
front, causing strong NE to E winds to expand over the entire
area Mon night through Wed night, along with building seas.

$$
Lewitsky
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