[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a
ridge across the Atlantic Ocean and lower surface pressures in
Colombia and Panama will continue to support strong to minimal
gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through the middle of the
week. The wave heights are forecast to reach 11-13 ft during the
overnight and early morning hours.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 09Z, a cold front extends from
Apalachicola Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. A scatterometer from 04Z
provides observations of gale force winds behind the cold front
offshore of NE Mexico to Tampico. By 12Z this morning, sustained
gale force winds will be confined to the offshore Veracruz waters,
where winds could reach 45 kt this morning. Strong N winds are
forecast for most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front.
The gale force winds will end late this evening after the cold
front exits the Gulf basin. Seas are forecast to peak near 19 ft
off Veracruz later today.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border and continues westward to near 05N18W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 02N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the ITCZ between 23W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf waters followed by
gale force winds and rough seas. Please read the Special Features
section for details.

A surface trough extends from Key West, Florida to Cancun, Mexico.
A line of thunderstorms is present within 60 nm of the trough
axis. Moderate convection is occurring east of a line extending
from 28N83W to 21N87W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are occurring
just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Mainly gentle to moderate winds
are elsewhere east of the front over the SE Gulf.

As for the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will exit the
basin this evening. Marine conditions will gradually improve
across the Gulf by late Mon as high pressure builds across the
basin, however fresh northeast winds will continue through Tue
over the southeastern Gulf and the Florida Straits, increasing to
strong Tue night and Wed as the pressure gradient tightens across
the area. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over
the NW Gulf by the middle of week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please
read the Special Features section for details.

A surface trough extends from Key West, Florida to Cancun, Mexico.
A line of thunderstorms is present within 60 nm of the trough
axis, including over the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, patches of
low cumulus clouds over the east-central Caribbean may contain
isolated passing showers.

Fresh trades cover the E Caribbean and strong trades are over the
central Caribbean, except for near-gale to gale near the coast of
Colombia. Gentle winds are over the NW Caribbean to the southeast
of the aforementioned surface trough. However, fresh N winds are
about to come through the Yucatan Channel north of the line of
thunderstorms. Seas are 10-14 ft near the coast of Colombia, and
7-10 ft elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft in
the eastern basin and 2-5 ft over the NW Caribbean.

As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
every night through Thu night. The areal extent of fresh to strong
winds over the central Caribbean will shrink slightly today, and
mainly be confined to the south-central Caribbean through Mon
night. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean
this evening, generating fresh to strong NE winds behind it
through Tue with building seas. Expect conditions to deteriorate
over the Yucatan Channel this morning with thunderstorms and gusty
winds. The cold front will extend from eastern Cuba to NE
Honduras by late Mon night, where it will stall before dissipating
Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward
Passage Mon night through the middle of next week. Looking ahead,
strong winds will expand in areal coverage again over the central
Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough east of Florida is spreading scattered showers
and isolated tstorms over Florida and extending northeastward over
the waters north of the northwest Bahamas. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds are observed on either side of the trough N of 26N.
Fresh NE-E winds are just N of Hispaniola. The wave heights are
in the range of 3-5 ft to the west of 75W, and 5-7 ft between
65W-75W, except for higher heights of 6-8 ft S of 23N and E of
74W.

A westward-moving surface trough persists over the Atlantic and
now extends from 25N47W to 15N48W. Plenty of deep atmospheric
moisture is present to the east of this trough to about 20W.
Within this area of moisture, patches of moderate rain, with
embedded showers are possible. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds
are noted per earlier scatterometer data near the northern end of
the trough axis due to the pressure gradient between the trough
and high pressure of 1031 mb located to the N near 34N39W.
Similar wind speeds are also noted E of the trough axis, and
mainly from 12N-23N between 28W-45W. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range
within these winds. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic waters.

As for the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong trades will
pulse N of Hispaniola through tonight. The next cold front is
forecast to move offshore Florida late this morning. Fresh to
strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the front, this
afternoon through Mon morning to the north and northeast of the
Bahamas. The front will extend from 27N65W to eastern Cuba late
Mon night. High pressure will strengthen north of the area in the
wake of the front, causing strong NE to E winds to expand over the
entire area Tue through Wed night, along with building seas.

$$
Hagen
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