[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a
ridge across the Atlantic Ocean and lower surface pressures in
Colombia and Panama will support strong to minimal gale-force
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of
Colombia, mainly at night, through the middle of the week. The
wave heights are forecast to reach 11-12 ft during the overnight
and early morning hours.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 03Z, a cold front extends from
the western Florida panhandle to just N of Tampico, Mexico. A
recent scatterometer pass provides observations of gale force
winds behind the cold front off the Texas and Mexico coasts to
offshore Tampico, Mexico. Gales force winds will affect offshore
Veracruz this Sun. Strong N winds are forecast over most of the
remainder of the Gulf behind the front. The front will exit the
basin by this evening. Conditions will gradually improve across
the Gulf region by late Mon as high pressure builds across the
basin. Wave heights to 12 ft were observed in the NW Gulf as
indicated by the latest observations from buoys 42019 near 27N95W
and 42020 near 27N97W.. Wave heights are forecast to build to
16-19 ft off Veracruz this morning with gale force NW winds of
35-45 kt.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border and continues westward to near 05N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 03N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the ITCZ between 23W-32W. Similar convection
is seen near 05N29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf waters followed by
gale force winds and rough seas. Please read the Special Features
section for details.

A surface trough extends from near 23N78W to inland across the
Yucatan peninsula. Abundant multilayer clouds with embedded
showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front. Showers
and thunderstorms are more concentrated near the northern end of
the above mentioned surface trough and over the SE waters where
the most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong N-NE
winds. Mainly gentle winds are in the NE Gulf, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere ahead of the front.

As for the forecast, as previously mentioned, the aforementioned
cold front should exit the basin this evening. Marine conditions
will gradually improve across the Gulf by late Mon as high
pressure builds across the basin, however fresh northeast winds
will continue through Tue over the southeastern Gulf and the
Florida Straits, increasing to strong Tue night and Wed as the
pressure gradient tightens across the area. Fresh to strong
southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf by the middle
of week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please
read the Special Features section for details.

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are over the remainder of
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate tradewinds
dominate the NW corner of the basin. An altimeter pass indicate
seas of 8-11 ft over the central Caribbean south of Jamaica. The
wave heights range from 6-9 ft elsewhere in the eastern and central
Caribbean. Lower wave heights, in the range of 2-4 ft, are in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Satellite imagery shows patches of low-level moisture moving quickly
westward with the trade wind flow over parts of the eastern and
central Caribbean, including also Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
Isolated to scattered passing showers are possible with these patches
of moisture.

As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
every night through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds
over the eastern and central Caribbean will continue through this
morning. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean
this evening, generating fresh to strong NE winds behind it through
Tue with building seas. Expect conditions to deteriorate over the
Yucatan Channel by this afternoon ahead of the approaching front.
The cold front will extend from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by
late Mon night, where it will stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh
to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage Mon
night through the middle of the week. Looking ahead, strong winds
will expand in areal coverage again over the east and central
Caribbean Sea by the middle of the week due to the presence of
strong high pressure N of the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends
from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and central Cuba. Some shower
activity is associated with the trough. Once again, satellite
derived wind data show the wind shift related to the trough axis.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds are observed on either side of the
trough N of 26N. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are just N of
Hispaniola. The wave heights are in the range of 3-5 ft to the
west of 65W, except for higher heights of 5-8 ft S of 22N and E of
74W.

A surface trough persists over the Atlantic and now extends from
24N45W to 14N46W. Plenty of deep atmospheric moisture is present
to the east of this trough to about 20W. Within this area of
moisture, patches of moderate rain, with embedded showers are
possible. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are noted per
scatterometer data near the northern end of the trough axis due to
the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure of
1033 mb located to the N near 31N39W. Similar wind speeds are
also noted E of the trough axis, and mainly from 12N-23N between
28W-45W. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range within these winds. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters.

As for the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong trades will pulse
N of Hispaniola through tonight. The next cold front is forecast
to move offshore Florida early this morning. Fresh to strong winds
are expected ahead of and behind the front this afternoon through
Mon morning to the north and northeast of the Bahamas. The front
will extend from 27N65W to eastern Cuba late Mon night. High
pressure will strengthen north of the area in the wake of the
front, causing strong NE to E winds to expand over the entire area
Tue through Wed night, along with building seas.

$$
GR
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