[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130042 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0042 UTC Sun Feb 13 2022

Updated the Special Features and Gulf of Mexico sections to
reflect latest update to the Gulf of Mexico forecast of gale
conditions behind a cold front.

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...Updated

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a
building central Atlantic Ocean ridge and lower surface
pressures in Colombia and Panama will support strong to minimal
gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through the middle of next
week. The wave heights are forecast to reach a range of
12-14 ft tonight, then subside on Sun. The wave heights may
possibly reach to around 11 ft with subsequent pulses of the
winds to gale-force from Sun night and into the middle of next
week.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has recently
moved off the coast of Texas, and as of 21Z extends from near
Panama City southwestward to 28N90W and continues to 26N94W
to 26N95W and to inland Mexico just north of Tampico. Gale-
force northerly winds are expected behind the front in the NW
Gulf, north-central Gulf waters west waters of 91W and offshore
Tampico tonight, spreading southward to offshore offshore Veracruz
on Sun. Strong north winds are forecast in most of the remainder
of the Gulf behind the front. Expect the front to exit the basin
by Sun evening. Wave heights to 12 ft are already being observed
in the NW Gulf as indicated by the latest observations from
buoys 42019 near 27N95W and 42020 near 27N97W. These wave
heights may possibly reach around 14 ft during the night. Wave
heights are forecast to build to 18 ft off Veracruz on Sun.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal plains of
Liberia near 06N10W to 05N16W and to 03N24W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 30 nm north of the trough between 14W-19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...Updated

Please read the Special features section for details on an
ongoing Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from near Panama City southwestward to
28N90W and continues to 26N94W to 26N95W and to inland Mexico
just north of Tampico. A surface trough extends from near 25N90W
to inland the coast of 18N94W. The combination of abundant deep
layer atmospheric moisture and these features has resulted in
widespread areas of moderate to heavy along with embedded
scattered showers and thunderstorms to materialize over the
basin to the southeast of the cold front. The wave heights are
in the range of 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf and slightly higher
heights of 2-4 ft elsewhere. Mainly gentle winds are in the
northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are in the
southern Gulf.

As for the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will bring
gale-force northerly winds to the NW Gulf, north-central Gulf
waters west waters of 91W and offshore Tampico tonight, spreading
southward to offshore Veracruz Sun. Strong north winds are
forecast over most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the
frontal boundary. The front should exit the basin Sun evening.
Conditions will gradually improve across the Gulf by late Mon as
high pressure builds across the basin, however fresh northeast
winds will continue through Tue over the southeastern Gulf and
the Florida Straits, increasing to strong Tue night and Wed.
Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the NW
Gulf by the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an
ongoing Gale Warning.

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are over the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea. Strong to gale-force northeast to east
winds are near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate
tradewinds are in the NW corner. The wave heights range from 6-9
ft in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with the exception
of higher heights of 9-12 ft offshore Colombia. Lower wave
heights, in the range of 2-4 ft, are in the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.

Satellite imagery shows patches of low-level moisture moving
quickly westward with the trade wind flow over some sections
of the eastern and central Caribbean. Isolated showers are
possible with these patches of moisture.

As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
every night through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong
winds over the eastern and central Caribbean will continue
through early Sun. The area of strong winds over the central
Caribbean is expected to expand again by the middle of next week.
A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean Sun
evening, generating fresh to strong northeast winds behind it
through Tue with building seas. Expect conditions to deteriorate
over the Yucatan Channel by Sun afternoon with the approaching
front. The cold front will extend from eastern Cuba to
northeastern Honduras by Mon night, where it will stall before
dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel
through the Windward Passage Mon night through the middle of next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from near 31N69W to 27N74W to the
central Bahamas and to inland central Cuba near Caibarien.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 30N within
180 nm east of the trough. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are
in the western Atlantic, except for fresh winds to the north of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The wave heights are in the range of
3-5 ft to the west of 60W, except for higher heights of 5-7 ft
from 19N to 22N between 63W-70W.

In the eastern Atlantic, an extensive surface trough is analyzed
from near 30N41W to 20N45W and to 07N46W. Plenty of deep
atmospheric moisture is present to the east of this trough
to near 19W. Within this moisture area, scattered patches of
moderate rain with embedded scattered to numerous showers are
noted, mainly to the north of 14N. Per latest and current
altimeter data passes, wave heights range from 7-10 ft from
the coasts of French Guiana and Suriname northward to between
the surface trough and 60W. The wave heights range mostly from
7-9 ft north of 10N and east of the trough. Some wave heights
are in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere in those areas. Wave heights
of 4-6 ft elsewhere east of 60W.

High pressure is present elsewhere over the Atlantic basin.

As for the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong trades will
pulse north of Hispaniola through Sun night. The next cold front
is forecast to move off northeast Florida early on Sun bringing
fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the
front. Looking ahead, high pressure will strengthen north of the
area, causing strong northeast to east winds to expand over the
entire area Tue through Thu night.

$$
Aguirre
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