[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure
gradient, between an Atlantic Ocean ridge and lower surface
pressures in Colombia and Panama, will continue to support strong
to minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea
near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through the middle of
the week. The wave heights are forecast to range from 11 feet to
13 feet during the overnight and early morning hours.

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: The cold front passes
through the Florida Big Bend, into the east central Gulf of
Mexico, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, and the eastern
part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The latest
scatterometer winds were showing gale-force northerly winds
within 80 nm of the coast of Mexico from 22N to 24.5N. Strong N
winds are forecast for most of the remainder of the Gulf behind
the front. The gale force winds will end late this evening after
the cold front exits the Gulf basin. The sea heights are forecast
to peak near 19 feet off Veracruz later today. The buoy 42055 in
the SW Gulf of Mexico, near 22N94W, has been reporting combined
sea heights of 13 feet, and NW wind 25 knots with gusts to 31
knots.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N11W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W, to 03N25W,
and 03N32W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 06N southward from 36W eastward, and from 08N southward
between 40W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
an ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning. The area that is being
affected is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A strong
cold front is moving through the Gulf waters, generating the
gale-force wind conditions and rough seas.

The cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the east
central Gulf of Mexico, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula,
and the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either
side of the cold front.

A surface ridge has built into the area, to the west and
northwest of the cold front. The ridge extends from a 1034 mb
south central Texas high pressure center, to the coastal plains of
Mexico near 22N98W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Storm-force wind conditions are forecast for the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico.

A surface trough passes through 26N80W at the east coast of
Florida, to the Florida Keys, across NW Cuba, to Belize.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is within
120 nm on either side of the surface trough.

A cold front extends from 30N84W to 21N89W. Gales occurring
behind the front along the coast of Mexico to just south of
Veracruz are expected to continue into tonight. Numerous showers
along with scattered thunderstorms over the Florida Straits and
Yucatan Channel should exit those regions by this afternoon.
Strong N winds are forecast for most of the remainder of the Gulf
behind the front. The front is forecast to exit the basin this
evening. Conditions are expected to gradually improve across the
Gulf by late Mon as high pressure builds across the basin, however
fresh NE winds may continue through Tue over the SE Gulf and the
Florida Straits, increasing to strong Tue afternoon into Wed.
Fresh to strong southerly return flow is forecast to develop over
the NW Gulf by midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
an ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning. The area that is being
affected is along the coast of Colombia.

A surface trough passes through 26N80W at the east coast of
Florida, to the Florida Keys, across NW Cuba, to Belize.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is within
120 nm on either side of the surface trough.

Rainshowers are possible in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, in
areas of low level cumulus clouds that are moving with the trade
wind flow.

Fresh trade winds cover the E Caribbean Sea. Strong trade winds
cover the central Caribbean Sea, except for near gale-force to
gale-force near the coast of Colombia. Gentle winds are in the NW
Caribbean. Mostly fresh, and some strong, winds are in the Yucatan
Channel. The sea heights have been ranging from 10 feet to 14
feet near the coast of Colombia, and from 7 feet to 10 feet
elsewhere between 70W and 80W. The sea heights range from 6 feet
to 8 feet in the eastern part of the basin, and from 2 feet to 5
feet in the NW Caribbean Sea.

Winds are expected to pulse to gale force off Colombia each night
through Thu night. A cold front is forecast to enter the
northwest Caribbean this evening, generating fresh to strong NE
winds behind it through Tue with building seas. Expect showers and
thunderstorms with gusty winds in the Yucatan Channel and extreme
NW Caribbean through early this afternoon. The cold front should
extend from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Mon night, where
it is forecast to stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE
winds are expected to funnel through the Windward Passage Mon
night through the middle of the week. Looking ahead, strong winds
are forecast to expand in areal coverage over the central
Caribbean Sea by midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 31N78W, to the east coast of Florida
near 26N80W, to the Florida Keys, to NW Cuba, to Belize.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 135 nm to
the east of the trough from 27N northward. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate is elsewhere within 120 nm on either side of
the surface trough.

A surface trough is from 13N to 29N along 44W/47W. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers are to the east
of the trough. The sea heights range mostly from 7 feet to 10 feet
from 04N to 28N from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from 4
feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the area that is from 60W
eastward. Strong to gale-force NE winds are from 10N to 23N
between 30W and 40W. Strong NE winds are from 10N to 18N between
19W and 30W. Strong NE-to-E winds are from 18N to 25N between 40W
and 50W. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from 19N to 25N
between 43W and 50W. Strong NE winds are from 16N to 22N between
55W and 63W. Fresh to moderate winds are elsewhere from 65W
eastward. Fresh to moderate SE-to-S winds cover the areas that are
between 65W and the Bahamas. The sea heights range from 7 feet to
9 feet from 17N to 25N between 60W and 65W. The sea heights range
from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere from 60W westward.

Fresh to strong trades are expected to pulse N of Hispaniola
through tonight. A cold front is emerging offshore Florida this
morning. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms just east of
the front today. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of and
behind the front through Mon morning, primarily to the north and
northeast of the Bahamas. The front is forecast to extend from
27N65W to eastern Cuba late Mon night. High pressure is expected
to strengthen north of the area in the wake of the front, causing
strong NE to E winds to expand over the entire area Tue through
Wed night, along with building seas.

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net