[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong gales to 40 kt are ongoing
over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Mexico from Tampico
to south of Veracruz. Seas are 10-15 ft. The gales are a result
of the strong pressure gradient between 1028 mb high pressure
inland over Mexico and a frontal boundary along the W Yucatan
Peninsula. Later today, gale force winds will diminish to 25 to 30
kt with 10-14 ft seas. Winds and seas are forecast to diminish
further overnight and tomorrow as high pressure builds south.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for additional details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of Liberia
and Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues to 04N16W. The ITCZ
then extends from 04N16W to 04N32W to the coast of Brazil near
00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N
between 18W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
on a Gale Warning.

At 1500 UTC, a 1014 mb low pressure is centered at 24N86W. Recent
scatterometer data depicted a small area of gale force winds from
24N to 25N between 85.5W and 87W, likely associated with
convection in the same area. Seas are currently 5-7 ft near this
low. Also at 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from
Chokoloskee, Florida to the aforementioned low pressure, then over
the Yucatan Peninsula and SE Bay of Campeche to 18N93W. Scattered
showers are noted near the frontal boundary and in the NE Gulf.
North of 26N, moderate to locally fresh N winds prevail. South of
26N to the stationary front, fresh to strong NE to N winds are
noted. In the Bay of Campeche, N winds are strong to near gale
force outside of the Gale Warning area. Seas are 3-5 ft north of
26N, along the Gulf Coast of Florida, and across the Straits of
Florida, 5-7 ft between 24N and 26N east of 85W, and 7-12 ft in
the south-central Gulf and Bay of Campeche outside of the Gale
Warning area.

For the forecast, strong gales following the front along the
coast of Mexico off Veracruz will persist through the morning,
with seas to 15 ft. The front will weaken and move into the
Yucatan Channel late today or tonight. The front will be SE of the
area by Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf
by early Wed as high pressure settles over the northern Gulf
through Fri. Looking ahead, the next cold front may enter the
northwest Gulf by late Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

It's a beautiful day in the Caribbean Sea! Recent scatterometer
and surface observations show gentle to moderate trades over the
eastern and central sections of the basin, with light and variable
winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean through mid week pulsing to strong off the coast
of Colombia mainly at night. A weak cold front will move into the
Yucatan Channel late today or tonight then extend from west-
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the W Atlantic, the earlier cold front has stalled and is now
stationary, extending from 31N73W to West Palm Beach, Florida.
Scattered showers are noted along and north of the boundary.
Gentle to moderate NE winds in the east Atlantic veer to SE west
of 70W ahead of the front. Weak 1012 mb low pressure is centered
near 26N34W. Seas are 6-10 ft in N swell north of 28N between 50W
and 58W. Elsewhere across the basin, seas are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stalled front will start moving
eastward on Wed as a weak low pressure develops along it north of
the northern Bahamas, and moves to the northeast. The front will
stall again from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas late Thu into
Fri, before lifting north of the area as a warm front on Sat.

$$
Mahoney
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