[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds to 40 kt are
ongoing over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Mexico near
the Veracruz area. Seas are 10-15 ft. The gales are a result of
the strong pressure gradient between 1028 mb high pressure
inland over Mexico and a frontal boundary along the W Yucatan
Peninsula. Later today, gale force winds will diminish to 25 to
30 kt with 10-14 ft seas. Winds and seas are forecast to
diminish further overnight and tomorrow as high pressure builds
south.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for additional details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of Liberia
and Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues to 04N16W. The ITCZ
then extends from 04N16W to 04N32W to the coast of Brazil near
00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N
between 18W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
on a Gale Warning.

At 1500 UTC, a 1014 mb low pressure is centered at 24N86W. Recent
scatterometer data depicted a small area of gale force winds from
24N to 25N between 85.5W and 87W, likely associated with
convection in the same area. Seas are currently 6-8 ft near this
low. Also at 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from
Chokoloskee, Florida to the aforementioned low pressure, then
over the Yucatan Peninsula and SE Bay of Campeche to 18N93W.
Scattered showers are noted near the frontal boundary and in the
NE Gulf. North of 26N, moderate to locally fresh N winds
prevail. South of 26N to the stationary front, fresh to strong
NE to N winds are noted. In the Bay of Campeche, N winds are
strong to near gale force outside of the Gale Warning area. Seas
are 3-5 ft north of 26N, along the Gulf Coast of Florida, and
across the Straits of Florida, 5-7 ft between 24N and 26N east
of 85W, and 7-12 ft in the south-central Gulf and Bay of
Campeche outside of the Gale Warning area.

For the forecast,  the  aforementioned front will weaken and
move into the Yucatan Channel late today or tonight. The front
will be SE of the area by Wed morning. Winds and seas will
diminish across the Gulf by early Wed as high pressure settles
over the northern Gulf through Fri. Looking ahead, the next cold
front may enter the northwest Gulf by late Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer and surface observations show gentle to
moderate trades over the eastern and central sections of the
basin, with light and variable winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas
are 3-5 ft across the basin. Patches of low level moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow are moving over the basin
producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Some of these
clouds are currently affecting the Cayman Islands.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean through mid week pulsing to strong off the coast
of Colombia mainly at night. A weak cold front will move into the
Yucatan Channel late today or tonight then extend from west-
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the W Atlantic, the earlier cold front has stalled and is now
stationary, extending from 31N73W to West Palm Beach, Florida.
Scattered showers are noted along and north of the boundary.
Gentle to moderate NE winds in the east Atlantic veer to SE west
of 70W ahead of the front. Weak 1012 mb low pressure is centered
near 26N34W. Seas are 6-10 ft in N swell north of 28N between 50W
and 58W. Elsewhere across the basin, seas are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stalled front will start moving
eastward on Wed as a weak low pressure develops along it north of
the northern Bahamas, and moves to the northeast. The front will
stall again from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas late Thu into
Fri, before lifting north of the area as a warm front on Sat.

$$
Mahoney
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