[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080936
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong gales are ongoing over the far
southwest Gulf off the coast of Mexico from Tampico to south of
Veracruz, between high pressure over northern Mexico, and 1017 mb low
pressure centered over the south-central Gulf of Mexico near
27N87W. The strong to gale force winds are following a frontal
boundary reaching from southwest Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated winds to
45 kt. The gales off Tampico are diminishing, but gales south of
21N will persist through the morning, with maximum seas reaching
18 ft. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will diminish across
the southern Gulf will diminish through tonight as high pressure
builds across the northern Gulf.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is extends across West Africa and enters the
Atlantic near the border of Liberia and Sierra Leone near 07N12W,
then continues to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 07N12W to 05N35W
to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection
is evident from 00N to 03N between 25W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
on a Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends from near Chokoloskee, Florida to 1017
mb low pressure near 23.5N87W. A cold front extends from the low
pressure to the eastern Bay of Campeche near 19N92W. In addition
to the area of strong gales described in the Special Features
section, recent buoy observations and scatterometer data indicate
strong northerly winds and 8 to 12 ft over much of the southern
Gulf south of 26N. North of 26N, northerly flow off the north
Gulf coast is supporting fetch-limited seas of only 1 to 3 ft
within 60 nm of the coast, but seas to 7 ft as far south as 26N.
This main driver for this active weather across the basin is a mid
to upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes to eastern
Texas, and approaching the northwest Gulf currently. A broad area
of low topped showers are evident on satellite and regional radar
from off South Texas to the western Florida Panhandle.

For the forecast, the strong gales following the front along the
coast of Mexico off Veracruz will persist through the morning,
with seas to 18 ft. The front will stall from the Straits of
Florida to the Yucatan Channel by Wed morning. Winds and seas will
diminish across the Gulf by early Wed as high pressure settles
over the northern Gulf through Fri. Looking ahead, the next cold
front may enter the northwest Gulf by late Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent ship and buoy observations along with scatterometer data
show fresh winds off the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, and
moderate to locally fresh winds over the eastern and central
Caribbean. Light breezes are noted over parts of the northwest
Caribbean, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere. The
relatively subdued winds are due to slowly moving front off the
coast of northeast Florida. This has displaced the subtropical
ridge to the east. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft over the eastern and
central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. No significant shower
or thunderstorm activity is noted.


For the forecast, modest high pressure over the central Atlantic
will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean through mid week pulsing to strong off Colombia
mainly at night. A weak cold front will move into the Yucatan
Channel late today or tonight then extend from west-central Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from an intensifying storm off Cape May, NJ to
just north of the NW Bahamas near 28N77W, where it transitions
into a stationary front that reaches into southern Florida. No
significant convection is associated with this boundary. Weak
ridging is evident to the east of the front to 50W. This pattern
is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of 25N and
west of 50W, with 5 to 7 ft seas, and light to gentle breezes
elsewhere west of 50W with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters. Farther
east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 25N33W. A earlier
scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to locally fresh
anticyclonic winds between the low pressure and the coast of
Africa. Seas in the area described are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned front will start
moving eastward on Wed as a weak low pressure develops along it
north of the northern Bahamas, and moves to the northeast. The
front will stall again from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas
late Thu into Fri, before lifting north of the area as a warm
front on Sat.

$$

Christensen
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