[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1017 mb low pressure is located
near 24N87W and a cold front extends into the Bay of Campeche as
of 0300 UTC. Meanwhile, a 1031 mb high pressure is centered over
northern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient persists over the
western Gulf, resulting in strong to gale-force winds occurring
over a good portion of the central and western Gulf. The gale-
force winds are present in the offshore waters of Veracruz as
confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass and surface
observations. Seas are 12-16 ft W of 94W and S of 24N, building
up to near 19 ft by early this morning in the SW Gulf. Winds will
decrease below gale force Tuesday afternoon. Rough seas will abate
Wednesday morning in the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Channel.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 05N15W to 04N21W to 05N33W to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 03S to 07N
and E of 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
on a Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends from SW Florida to the 1017 mb low
pressure located near 24N87W and a cold front then continues from
the center of the low to the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is
interacting with an upper level trough to produce a large area of
cloudiness and scattered showers that covers most of the Gulf.
However, the SE Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to strong NE winds
occurring north of the stationary front to 29N and between the
west coast of Florida and the low pressure. Fresh to strong N
winds are also found in the northern and NW Gulf. Seas are 2-5 ft
E of 87W, NW Gulf and E Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front is forecast to reach
from near Lake Okeechobee in south-central Florida to the eastern
Bay of Campeche on Tue morning, and extend across the Straits of
Florida and the Yucatan Channel on Wed morning. Winds and seas
will diminish across the Gulf by early Wed as high pressure
settles over the northern Gulf through Fri. Looking ahead, the
next cold front may enter the northwest Gulf by late Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fairly tranquil weather conditions are present across the
Caribbean Sea. Pockets of moisture hitch a ride in the trades
and generate isolated showers, especially in the eastern and
western portions of the basin. The trough affecting the eastern
Greater Antilles has weakened but some isolated showers are seen
on satellite imagery still affecting Hispaniola. Fresh to strong
trades are occurring in the eastern and central Caribbean, with
the strongest winds being found in the offshore waters of NW
Colombia. Seas in these areas are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds
and seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central
Caribbean through mid week pulsing to strong off Colombia mainly
at night. A weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel
late Tue then extend from west-central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras by Wed morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from an intensifying storm off Cape Hatteras
to just north of the NW Bahamas near 28N79W, where it transitions
into a stationary front that reaches into southern Florida. No
significant convection is associated with this boundary. Latest
satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate that
moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are found W of 60W. Seas in
the region are 4-7 ft, including 6-7 ft near the eastern Bahamas.

Farther east, a broad 1012 mb low pressure located near 24N38W
continues to produce scattered and weak showers over the eastern
quadrant. The high pressure over the NE Atlantic has moved
eastward toward France, resulting in a weakening of the pressure
gradient over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to locally fresh
anticyclonic winds between the low pressure and the coast of
Africa. Seas in the area described are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front extending from 31N75W
to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida will briefly stall from 30N73W to
the northern Bahamas late on Tue, then move eastward on Wed as a
weak low pressure develops across the frontal boundary and moves
to the northeast. The front will stall again from near 31N70W to
the central Bahamas late Thu into Fri.

$$
DELGADO
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