[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force NW to N winds are
currently occurring behind a cold front in the western Gulf
offshore of Tampico. The gale force winds will migrate to the
Veracruz offshore waters tonight. Seas will build to 14 to 16 ft
off Veracruz by tonight. Winds will decrease below gale force
Tuesday afternoon. Rough seas will abate Wednesday morning in the
Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Channel.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to
11N19W. The ITCZ continues from 11N19W to 06N23W to 05N30W to
04N42W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection extends from the
equator to 07.5N between 06W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
on a Gale Warning.

A 1018 mb low pressure is near 26N88W. A cold front extends SW
from the low to 23N95W to 19N95W. A stationary front extends E
from the low to Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Scattered moderate
rainshowers are present from the front to 30N between 87W-94W.
Another area of scattered showers and isolated tstorms is noted
from 24N-26N between 85W-87W. Strong N winds are occurring north
and west of the cold front, mainly south of 27N, with gale force
winds occurring offshore Tampico. Seas are 6 to 11 ft in this
area, highest offshore Tampico. Moderate to fresh N winds are in
the NW Gulf with 2 to 5 ft seas. Mainly moderate wind speeds are
south and east of the front, where seas are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to reach from near Lake
Okeechobee Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Tue morning,
and extend across the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel
on Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf by
early Wed as high pressure settles over the northern Gulf through
Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper-level trough that had been enhancing rainfall across
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic for the
last few days has finally weakened. Isolated showers and tstorms
are still currently occurring over the Dominican Republic.
Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh NE to E winds over the NE
basin, to the north of a shear line, which extends from 15N61W to
17N70W at 18Z. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are likely occurring in that
area. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are near the coast of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate
trades are elsewhere east of 75W with 3-4 ft seas. Mainly gentle
winds are west of 75W with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean through mid week pulsing to strong off Colombia
mainly at night. A weak cold front will move into the Yucatan
Channel late Tue then extend from west-central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras by Wed morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N76W to
Stuart, FL near 27N80W. A fresh breeze is noted north of 30N on
both sides of the front with 6-7 ft seas. Moderate winds extend
from 28N-30N and west of 72W, with gentle winds over the NW
Bahamas, due to a surface ridge which extends from a 1023 mb high
near 29N63W. Fresh trades are likely present from the SE Bahamas
to Puerto Rico. Seas are 6-7 ft to the east of the SE Bahamas.

In the central Atlantic a 1011 mb low pressure system located
near 24N39W extends a surface trough to the southern Windward
Islands. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N-28N
between 28W-38W in an area of fresh winds. Fresh winds are also
north of the low pressure. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh NE
winds are evident N of 27N and between the coast of Morocco and
Western Sahara and 25W, enveloping the Canary Islands. These winds
are generating an area of 7-9 ft seas west of the Canary Islands.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will
move slowly eastward across the area tonight into early Tue. The
front will briefly stall from 30N73W to the northern Bahamas late
on Tue, then move eastward on Wed as a low pressure develops
across the frontal boundary and moves NE. The front will stall
again from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas late Thu into Fri.

$$
Hagen
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