[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071648
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Winds behind a cold front in the
western Gulf will increase to gale force tonight between Tampico
and Veracruz. Seas will build as high as 16 ft off Veracruz by
tonight. Winds will decrease below gale force Tuesday afternoon.
Rough seas will abate Wednesday morning in the Bay of Campeche
and Yucatan Channel.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ enters
the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W along the coast of Sierra Leone
and continues through 03N30W to the Brazilian coast near 01S48W.
Scattered moderate convection extends from the equator to 07N
between 10W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
on a Gale Warning.

A cold front has formed across the central and western Gulf. Buoys
are reporting a strong northerly breeze behind the front with
building seas currently 4-6 ft. Conditions are more favorable
ahead of the front with a moderate breeze and slight to moderate
seas. Scattered showers and reduced visibility are reported along
and behind the front.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary over the western Gulf will
bring gale force winds near the Tampico area late today and
tonight and near Veracruz region tonight and Tue. Seas are
forecast to build to 14-15 ft with these winds. This pattern will
also support fresh to strong winds and rough seas elsewhere across
the western Gulf through tonight, and across the south-central
and southeast Gulf through late Tue. Winds and seas will diminish
across the Gulf by early Wed as weaker high pressure settles over
the northern Gulf through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergent flow aloft and a nearby trough continues to support
shower activity across the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola. A small area of strong NE winds are observed
along the coast of Colombia, generating 5-7 ft seas in the
Colombian Basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas
dominate the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean through mid week, pulsing to strong off
Colombia mainly at night. A weak cold front will move into the
Yucatan Channel late Tue then stall over the far northwest
Caribbean Wed and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N78W to
West Palm Beach, FL. A fresh breeze is noted on both sides of the
front with 6-9 ft seas. In the central Atlantic a 1013 mb low
pressure system located near 25N39W extends a surface trough to
the southern Leeward Islands. Showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms are noted north and east of the low in an area of
fresh winds. In the eastern Atlantic, strong NE winds are evident
N of 25N and between the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara and
25W, enveloping the Canary Islands. These winds are generating an
area of 8-10 ft seas west of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front extends from a 1016 mb
low pressure located near 32N79W to south Florida. The low will
lift northward this morning and drag the cold front across the
area. Then, the front will briefly stall from 30N73W to the
northern Bahamas late on Tue, the move eastward on Wed as another
low pressure develops across the frontal boundary and moves NE.

$$
FLYNN
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