[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Winds will increase over the western
Gulf today, reaching gale force between Tampico and Veracruz,
between high pressure over northern Mexico and lower pressure over
the central and southwest Gulf. Seas will build as high as 16 ft
off Veracruz by tonight. Winds will diminish to below gale force
early Tue.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 04.5N25W. The ITCZ
continues from 04.5N25W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection
extends from 01N to 05N between 10W and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
on a Gale Warning.

A sharp mid to upper level trough reaches from the Great Lakes
to West Texas. Divergent flow aloft ahead of this trough is
supporting a few showers over the northwest GUlf. This pattern is
also supporting the development of troughs over the central and
western Gulf. Recent scatterometer satellite data and buoy
observations show moderate to fresh winds over the northwest
Gulf. The increase in winds has only recently started, and seas
are still only 2 to 4 ft over the northwest Gulf. Light to gentle
breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a pair of troughs are developing over
the western and central Gulf as high pressure moves through Texas
and into northern Mexico. The resultant tightening pressure
gradient between these features will support winds to gale force
over the western Gulf along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to
Veracruz late today into early Tue, with seas building to 16 ft
off Veracruz. The pattern will support fresh to strong winds and
rough seas elsewhere across the western Gulf through tonight, and
across the south- central and southeast Gulf through late Tue.
Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf by early Wed as
weaker high pressure settles over the northern Gulf through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergent flow aloft and a nearby shear line continues to enhance
the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Leeward and Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The area of high
moisture will migrate westward, enhancing the chances of heavy
rainfall over Hispaniola through the next couple of days. A
earlier scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to locally strong
trades north of the shear line in the NE Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the south-central
Caribbean Sea with the strongest winds off the NW coast of
Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are also occurring off the
southern coast of Hispaniola, Windward Passage and in the lee of
Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found in the rest of
the central and eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas of 4-6 ft are present E of 80W, while seas
of 2-4 ft are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean through mid week pulsing to strong off Colombia
mainly at night. A weak cold front will move into the Yucatan
Channel late Tue then stall over the far northwest Caribbean Wed
and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb low pressure center is located off Jacksonville,
Florida, near 31N81W. A stationary front extends from the low
pressure to South Florida, while a warm front extends from the low
pressure to 30N75W, becoming a stationary front that continues
to 31N60W. The disturbance is producing a large area of
cloudiness and light showers, mainly north of the center and warm
front. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass captured the
developing system, indicating strong to near gale- force winds
north of 29N and west of 72W. Seas of 8-12 ft are noted north of
28N and west of 70W.

Farther east, a broad 1012 mb low pressure system located near
24N40W and surface trough extending from the center to 20N40W to
14N55W. Fresh to strong winds around this low have subsided, but
seas of 8 to 9 ft persist in lingering swell. Scattered light
showers are noted to the east of the low pressure and trough.
Nearby, a weak shear line extends from 14N55W westward into the
northeast Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NE swell across the
area west of 50W. Farther east, strong to occasionally near
gale-force NE winds are evident N of 25N and between the coast of
Morocco and Western Sahara and 25W, enveloping the Canary
Islands. Seas in the area are 8-11 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 65W, the low off Jacksonville will lift
northward this morning and drag the western portion of the front
north of the area. Another cold front will follow off the
northeast Florida coast tonight, then stall briefly from 30N70W to
the northern Bahamas through mid week. Looking ahead, the front
will move east later in the week, and reach a position from
Bermuda to central Cuba by Fri.

$$
Christensen
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