[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070453
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0444 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong high pressure system
building over the northern Gulf of Mexico and a surface trough
over the SW Gulf will result in a tightening pressure gradient.
Strong to gale-force winds are forecast to develop late Monday and
continue into Tuesday over the western Gulf off the coast of
Mexico, from Tampico to Veracruz. Seas are expected to built to 16
ft off Veracruz by Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will subside
through mid week as a developing low pressure off the SE US coast
lifts farther to the north and high pressure builds over the
region, weakening the pressure gradient.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined mostly over the African
continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 07N12W and continues to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W
to 02S33W to 01S48W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is found from 00N to 07N and between
the coast of Africa to 20W. Another area of scattered showers and
very isolated thunderstorms is seen from 01S to 06N and between
24W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
on a Gale Warning.

A 1024 mb high pressure system near the coast of southern
Louisiana dominates the Gulf of Mexico. A few surface troughs are
observed in the central and southeast portion of the basin, but
only a few light showers are associated with these boundaries.
Surface observations and a recent scatterometer satellite pass
show moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds across the Gulf.
Seas of 3-6 ft prevail S of 27N and 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong high pressure building across the
northern Gulf along with a trough over the southwest Gulf will
result in winds to gale force along the coast of Mexico from
Tampico to Veracruz late Mon through early Tue, with fresh to
strong winds and rough seas elsewhere over much of the southern
Gulf into Wed. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin mid
week as high pressure again builds over the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergent flow aloft and a nearby shear line continues to enhance
the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Leeward and Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The area of high
moisture will migrate westward, enhancing the chances of heavy
rainfall over Hispaniola through the next couple of days. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to locally strong
trades north of the shear line in the NE Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the south-central
Caribbean Sea with the strongest winds off the NW coast of
Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are also occurring off the
southern coast of Hispaniola, Windward Passage and in the lee of
Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found in the rest of
the central and eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas of 4-6 ft are present E of 80W, while seas
of 2-4 ft are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, weakening high pressure S of Bermuda will
support pulses of fresh to strong winds near the coast of
Colombia, south of Hispaniola, and in the Windward passage through
tonight. Moderate to large NE swell dominating the Atlantic
waters of the Leeward Islands will continue to diminish through
tonight. A weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel late
Tue then stall over the far northwest Caribbean Wed and Thu.
Fresh to strong trade winds will return to the south central and
eastern Caribbean late Thu through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb low pressure center is located off NE Florida, near
29.5N79.5W. A stationary front extends from the low pressure to
South Florida, while a warm front extends from the low pressure
to 29.5N73W, becoming a stationary front that continues north of
the tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is producing a large area
of cloudiness and light showers, mainly north of the center and
warm front. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the
developing system, indicating strong to near gale-force winds N of
29N and W of 72W. Seas of 8-12 ft are noted N of 28N and W of
70W.

Another feature of interest is a broad 1012 mb low pressure system
located near 28N43W and surface trough extending from the center
to 21N39W to 14N55W. Scattered light showers are noted to the east
of the low pressure and trough. Meanwhile, a 1024 mb high
pressure is centered south of the aforementioned stationary front
near 29N65W. The pressure gradient between these two systems and a
shear line that extends from 15N54W to near Hispaniola results in
fresh to strong NNE-E winds from 17N to 30N and between 49W to
70W, although past 60W these winds are mainly found S of 25N. Seas
in this portion of the Atlantic are 6-9 ft. Fresh to strong SE
winds are found on the NE quadrant of the broad disturbance due to
a 1038 mb high pressure located NE of the Azores. Seas are 6-8 ft
N of 25N and between 33W and 47W.

Farther east, strong to occasionally near gale-force NE winds are
evident N of 26N and between the coast of Morocco and Western
Sahara and 25W, enveloping the Canary Islands. Seas in the area
are 8-11 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6
ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 65W, a warm front extends from 30N65W to 1017 mb low
pressure near 30N79.5W, then continues SSW to near West Palm Beach
Beach, Florida. The low will lift northward through tonight and
drag the western portion of the front north of the area on Mon.
Another cold front will follow off the northeast Florida coast
late Mon, then stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the northern
Bahamas through mid week.

$$
DELGADO
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