[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will form over the
northern Gulf late tonight into early Mon, between high pressure
west of the area and low pressure moving from the east coast of
Florida toward the Carolina coast. The gradient will be tight
enough to support near-gale to gale force winds Mon night into
Tue over the western Gulf off the coast of Mexico, from Tampico
to Veracruz. Seas may build as high as 16 ft off Veracruz by Tue
morning. Winds and seas will subside through mid week as the low
pressure lifts farther to the north and high pressure builds
over the area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over western Africa. The ITCZ
extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N30W to
00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the ITCZ
to 01N between the west coast of Africa and 20W. Scattered
moderate convection is also from 01N to 03N between 23W and 30W.
Farther west, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of
the ITCZ between 41W and the coast of Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
on a Gale Warning.

A dissipating stationary front is lingering from near Key West,
Florida to The Yucatan channel. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicates mainly moderate return flow over the Gulf, except
for the SW Gulf south of 24N, including the Yucatan Channel and
Bay of Campeche, where winds are moderate to fresh. Seas range
from 1 to 3 ft north of 27N, 4 to 6 ft from 23N to 27N, and
mainly 6 to 8 ft south of 23N.

For the forecast, the stationary front will meander and
dissipate tonight. Large seas over the south-central and
southeast Gulf will diminish today as high pressure builds over
the region. Another cold front will develop over the northern
Gulf late today or tonight and move across the basin through
Tue, bringing another round of winds to gale force to the
west-central and southwest Gulf Mon night and Tue. Winds and
seas will diminish across the basin mid week as high pressure
again builds over the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergent flow aloft related to an upper low centered over the
eastern Caribbean Sea is supporting scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Rainfall amounts of 7 to 11 inches have fallen over portions of
Puerto Rico, just to the west of San Jan during the 24 hr period
from 1200 UTC Sat Feb 5 to 1200 UTC Sun Feb 6. There is ample
low level moisture still in place across the islands, related to
a shear line extending over the region. The area of high
moisture will migrate westward, enhancing the chances of heavy
rainfall over the Dominican Republic through the next couple of
days. A recent scatterometer satellite pass revealed mainly
moderate trades in the eastern and western Caribbean due to a
weakening pressure gradient between higher pressure centered in
the W Atl and lower pressures over Colombia. Meanwhile, winds in
the central Caribbean are moderate to fresh, with fresh NE winds
noted in the Mona Passage, south of Hispaniola, and within the
Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE winds are also noted to be
pulsing within 90 nm of Colombia. Seas continue to range from 6 to
8 ft over most of the basin, reaching heights of 9 ft within the
Yucatan Channel and offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, the weakening high pressure just S of Bermuda
will support pulses of fresh to strong winds near the coast of
Colombia, south of Hispaniola, and in the Windward passage
through tonight. Large NE swell dominating the Atlantic waters
of the Leeward Islands will gradually diminish through tonight.
Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the Yucatan
Channel late Tue then stall over the far northwest Caribbean Wed
and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb low pressure center has formed off northeast Florida,
lifting a warm front along 29N. A cold front extends from just S
of Bermuda to 31N66W then becomes stationary and connects to the
aforementioned warm front. An area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms is north of the warm front between 75W and 78W. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass revealed fresh to strong
southerly winds south of the warm front and strong NE winds
northwest of the low pressure center. Seas in the western Atl
north of 27N and west of 70W are 8 to 12 ft in NE swell.

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered south of the cold front.
Farther east, a broad deep-layer low is centered near 28N46W,
with an estimated pressure of 1013 mb. A scatterometer pass from
earlier found fresh N winds in the northwest quadrant of the low
and fresh to strong SE winds in the northeast quadrant, north of
29N. A band of moderate to fresh NE winds persists between the
low pressure and the 1022 mb high to the west affecting the
Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, with 7 to 8 ft
seas in NE swell.

Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds are evident north of the
Canary Islands, with 8 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted south of 15N over the deep
tropics.

For the forecast west of 65W, The low will lift northward this
afternoon and tonight and drag the western portion of the front
north of the area on Mon. Another cold front will follow off the
northeast Florida coast late Mon, then stall and dissipate from
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas through mid week.

$$
Mora/AH
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